ML Top-3 Smoke Survey (2024 Prototype)¶
Duplicate audit
This page is an earlier ML Top-3 2024 smoke/prototype pass. A duplicate audit on 2026-06-04 found 0 internal duplicate entries by exact Semantic Scholar URL/title, and 108 exact URL overlaps with the newer ML + Vision Top-6 survey. Treat the ML + Vision Top-6 survey as canonical for shared papers; this page is kept as an archived prototype and ML Top-3-only triage view.
Summary¶
Papers Per Venue Per Year¶
| Venue | 2024 | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Neural Information Processing Systems | 83 | 83 |
| International Conference on Machine Learning | 67 | 67 |
| International Conference on Learning Representations | 56 | 56 |
Top 10 By Citation Count¶
Top 5 By Topic Match¶
| Rank | Title | Venue | Year | Citations | Score | DOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWE-agent: Agent-Computer Interfaces Enable Automated Software Engineering | Neural Information Processing Systems | 2024 | 1175 | 5 | 10.48550/arXiv.2405.15793 |
| 2 | Automated Design of Agentic Systems | International Conference on Learning Representations | 2024 | 203 | 5 | 10.48550/arXiv.2408.08435 |
| 3 | A Globally Optimal Portfolio for m-Sparse Sharpe Ratio Maximization | Neural Information Processing Systems | 2024 | 5 | 5 | 10.52202/079017-0545 |
| 4 | TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting | International Conference on Learning Representations | 2024 | 610 | 3 | 10.48550/arXiv.2405.14616 |
| 5 | Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers | International Conference on Machine Learning | 2024 | 568 | 3 | 10.48550/arXiv.2402.02592 |
| ## Papers By Venue And Year |
Neural Information Processing Systems¶
2024¶
SWE-agent: Agent-Computer Interfaces Enable Automated Software Engineering Paper
Abstract
Language model (LM) agents are increasingly being used to automate complicated tasks in digital environments. Just as humans benefit from powerful software applications, such as integrated development environments, for complex tasks like software engineering, we posit that LM agents represent a new category of end users with their own needs and abilities, and would benefit from specially-built interfaces to the software they use. We investigate how interface design affects the performance of language model agents. As a result of this exploration, we introduce SWE-agent: a system that facilitates LM agents to autonomously use computers to solve software engineering tasks. SWE-agent's custom agent-computer interface (ACI) significantly enhances an agent's ability to create and edit code files, navigate entire repositories, and execute tests and other programs. We evaluate SWE-agent on SWE-bench and HumanEvalFix, achieving state-of-the-art performance on both with a pass@1 rate of 12.5% and 87.7%, respectively, far exceeding the previous state-of-the-art achieved with non-interactive LMs. Finally, we provide insight on how the design of the ACI can impact agents' behavior and performance.
Claim
Language model (LM) agents are increasingly being used to automate complicated tasks in digital environments.
A Globally Optimal Portfolio for m-Sparse Sharpe Ratio Maximization Paper
Abstract
The Sharpe ratio is an important and widely-used risk-adjusted return in financial engineering. In modern portfolio management, one may require an m-sparse (no more than m active assets) portfolio to save managerial and financial costs. However, few existing methods can optimize the Sharpe ratio with the m-sparse constraint, due to the nonconvexity and the complexity of this constraint. We propose to convert the m-sparse fractional optimization problem into an equivalent m-sparse quadratic programming problem. The semi-algebraic property of the resulting objective function allows us to exploit the Kurdyka-Lojasiewicz property to develop an efficient Proximal Gradient Algorithm (PGA) that leads to a portfolio which achieves the globally optimal m-sparse Sharpe ratio under certain conditions. The convergence rates of PGA are also provided. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proposal that achieves a globally optimal m-sparse Sharpe ratio with a theoretically-sound guarantee.
Claim
The Sharpe ratio is an important and widely-used risk-adjusted return in financial engineering.
TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables Paper
Abstract
Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.
Claim
Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting.
AgentPoison: Red-teaming LLM Agents via Poisoning Memory or Knowledge Bases Paper
Abstract
LLM agents have demonstrated remarkable performance across various applications, primarily due to their advanced capabilities in reasoning, utilizing external knowledge and tools, calling APIs, and executing actions to interact with environments. Current agents typically utilize a memory module or a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) mechanism, retrieving past knowledge and instances with similar embeddings from knowledge bases to inform task planning and execution. However, the reliance on unverified knowledge bases raises significant concerns about their safety and trustworthiness. To uncover such vulnerabilities, we propose a novel red teaming approach AgentPoison, the first backdoor attack targeting generic and RAG-based LLM agents by poisoning their long-term memory or RAG knowledge base. In particular, we form the trigger generation process as a constrained optimization to optimize backdoor triggers by mapping the triggered instances to a unique embedding space, so as to ensure that whenever a user instruction contains the optimized backdoor trigger, the malicious demonstrations are retrieved from the poisoned memory or knowledge base with high probability. In the meantime, benign instructions without the trigger will still maintain normal performance. Unlike conventional backdoor attacks, AgentPoison requires no additional model training or fine-tuning, and the optimized backdoor trigger exhibits superior transferability, in-context coherence, and stealthiness. Extensive experiments demonstrate AgentPoison's effectiveness in attacking three types of real-world LLM agents: RAG-based autonomous driving agent, knowledge-intensive QA agent, and healthcare EHRAgent. On each agent, AgentPoison achieves an average attack success rate higher than 80% with minimal impact on benign performance (less than 1%) with a poison rate less than 0.1%.
Claim
LLM agents have demonstrated remarkable performance across various applications, primarily due to their advanced capabilities in reasoning, utilizing external knowledge and tools, calling APIs, and executing actions to interact with environments.
Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting? Paper
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are being applied to time series forecasting. But are language models actually useful for time series? In a series of ablation studies on three recent and popular LLM-based time series forecasting methods, we find that removing the LLM component or replacing it with a basic attention layer does not degrade forecasting performance -- in most cases, the results even improve! We also find that despite their significant computational cost, pretrained LLMs do no better than models trained from scratch, do not represent the sequential dependencies in time series, and do not assist in few-shot settings. Additionally, we explore time series encoders and find that patching and attention structures perform similarly to LLM-based forecasters.
Claim
Large language models (LLMs) are being applied to time series forecasting.
AgentBoard: An Analytical Evaluation Board of Multi-turn LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
Evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) as general-purpose agents is essential for understanding their capabilities and facilitating their integration into practical applications. However, the evaluation process presents substantial challenges. A primary obstacle is the benchmarking of agent performance across diverse scenarios within a unified framework, especially in maintaining partially-observable environments and ensuring multi-round interactions. Moreover, current evaluation frameworks mostly focus on the final success rate, revealing few insights during the process and failing to provide a deep understanding of the model abilities. To address these challenges, we introduce AgentBoard, a pioneering comprehensive benchmark and accompanied open-source evaluation framework tailored to analytical evaluation of LLM agents. AgentBoard offers a fine-grained progress rate metric that captures incremental advancements as well as a comprehensive evaluation toolkit that features easy assessment of agents for multi-faceted analysis. This not only sheds light on the capabilities and limitations of LLM agents but also propels the interpretability of their performance to the forefront. Ultimately, AgentBoard serves as a step towards demystifying agent behaviors and accelerating the development of stronger LLM agents.
Claim
Evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) as general-purpose agents is essential for understanding their capabilities and facilitating their integration into practical applications.
CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns Paper
Abstract
The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.
Claim
The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts.
SOFTS: Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Series-Core Fusion Paper
Abstract
Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but neglect channel correlations, limiting further enhancements. Several methods utilize mechanisms like attention or mixer to address this by capturing channel correlations, but they either introduce excessive complexity or rely too heavily on the correlation to achieve satisfactory results under distribution drifts, particularly with a large number of channels. Addressing this gap, this paper presents an efficient MLP-based model, the Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS), which incorporates a novel STar Aggregate-Redistribute (STAR) module. Unlike traditional approaches that manage channel interactions through distributed structures, \textit{e.g.}, attention, STAR employs a centralized strategy to improve efficiency and reduce reliance on the quality of each channel. It aggregates all series to form a global core representation, which is then dispatched and fused with individual series representations to facilitate channel interactions effectively.SOFTS achieves superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods with only linear complexity. The broad applicability of the STAR module across different forecasting models is also demonstrated empirically. For further research and development, we have made our code publicly available at https://github.com/Secilia-Cxy/SOFTS.
Claim
Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare.
Large Language Models as Urban Residents: An LLM Agent Framework for Personal Mobility Generation Paper
Abstract
This paper introduces a novel approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) integrated into an agent framework for flexible and effective personal mobility generation. LLMs overcome the limitations of previous models by effectively processing semantic data and offering versatility in modeling various tasks. Our approach addresses three research questions: aligning LLMs with real-world urban mobility data, developing reliable activity generation strategies, and exploring LLM applications in urban mobility. The key technical contribution is a novel LLM agent framework that accounts for individual activity patterns and motivations, including a self-consistency approach to align LLMs with real-world activity data and a retrieval-augmented strategy for interpretable activity generation. We evaluate our LLM agent framework and compare it with state-of-the-art personal mobility generation approaches, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach and its potential applications in urban mobility. Overall, this study marks the pioneering work of designing an LLM agent framework for activity generation based on real-world human activity data, offering a promising tool for urban mobility analysis.
Claim
This paper introduces a novel approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) integrated into an agent framework for flexible and effective personal mobility generation.
From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection Paper
Abstract
This paper introduces a novel approach that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative Agents to enhance time series forecasting by reasoning across both text and time series data. With language as a medium, our method adaptively integrates social events into forecasting models, aligning news content with time series fluctuations to provide richer insights. Specifically, we utilize LLM-based agents to iteratively filter out irrelevant news and employ human-like reasoning to evaluate predictions. This enables the model to analyze complex events, such as unexpected incidents and shifts in social behavior, and continuously refine the selection logic of news and the robustness of the agent's output. By integrating selected news events with time series data, we fine-tune a pre-trained LLM to predict sequences of digits in time series. The results demonstrate significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, suggesting a potential paradigm shift in time series forecasting through the effective utilization of unstructured news data.
Claim
This paper introduces a novel approach that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative Agents to enhance time series forecasting by reasoning across both text and time series data.
AgentDojo: A Dynamic Environment to Evaluate Attacks and Defenses for LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
AI agents aim to solve complex tasks by combining text-based reasoning with external tool calls. Unfortunately, AI agents are vulnerable to prompt injection attacks where data returned by external tools hijacks the agent to execute malicious tasks. To measure the adversarial robustness of AI agents, we introduce AgentDojo, an evaluation framework for agents that execute tools over untrusted data. To capture the evolving nature of attacks and defenses, AgentDojo is not a static test suite, but rather an extensible environment for designing and evaluating new agent tasks, defenses, and adaptive attacks. We populate the environment with 97 realistic tasks (e.g., managing an email client, navigating an e-banking website, or making travel bookings), 629 security test cases, and various attack and defense paradigms from the literature. We find that AgentDojo poses a challenge for both attacks and defenses: state-of-the-art LLMs fail at many tasks (even in the absence of attacks), and existing prompt injection attacks break some security properties but not all. We hope that AgentDojo can foster research on new design principles for AI agents that solve common tasks in a reliable and robust manner.. We release the code for AgentDojo at https://github.com/ethz-spylab/agentdojo.
Claim
AI agents aim to solve complex tasks by combining text-based reasoning with external tool calls.
FilterNet: Harnessing Frequency Filters for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
While numerous forecasters have been proposed using different network architectures, the Transformer-based models have state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. However, forecasters based on Transformers are still suffering from vulnerability to high-frequency signals, efficiency in computation, and bottleneck in full-spectrum utilization, which essentially are the cornerstones for accurately predicting time series with thousands of points. In this paper, we explore a novel perspective of enlightening signal processing for deep time series forecasting. Inspired by the filtering process, we introduce one simple yet effective network, namely FilterNet, built upon our proposed learnable frequency filters to extract key informative temporal patterns by selectively passing or attenuating certain components of time series signals. Concretely, we propose two kinds of learnable filters in the FilterNet: (i) Plain shaping filter, that adopts a universal frequency kernel for signal filtering and temporal modeling; (ii) Contextual shaping filter, that utilizes filtered frequencies examined in terms of its compatibility with input signals for dependency learning. Equipped with the two filters, FilterNet can approximately surrogate the linear and attention mappings widely adopted in time series literature, while enjoying superb abilities in handling high-frequency noises and utilizing the whole frequency spectrum that is beneficial for forecasting. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on eight time series forecasting benchmarks, and experimental results have demonstrated our superior performance in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency compared with state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/aikunyi/FilterNet
Claim
While numerous forecasters have been proposed using different network architectures, the Transformer-based models have state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting.
Cooperate or Collapse: Emergence of Sustainable Cooperation in a Society of LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
As AI systems pervade human life, ensuring that large language models (LLMs) make safe decisions remains a significant challenge. We introduce the Governance of the Commons Simulation (GovSim), a generative simulation platform designed to study strategic interactions and cooperative decision-making in LLMs. In GovSim, a society of AI agents must collectively balance exploiting a common resource with sustaining it for future use. This environment enables the study of how ethical considerations, strategic planning, and negotiation skills impact cooperative outcomes. We develop an LLM-based agent architecture and test it with the leading open and closed LLMs. We find that all but the most powerful LLM agents fail to achieve a sustainable equilibrium in GovSim, with the highest survival rate below 54%. Ablations reveal that successful multi-agent communication between agents is critical for achieving cooperation in these cases. Furthermore, our analyses show that the failure to achieve sustainable cooperation in most LLMs stems from their inability to formulate and analyze hypotheses about the long-term effects of their actions on the equilibrium of the group. Finally, we show that agents that leverage"Universalization"-based reasoning, a theory of moral thinking, are able to achieve significantly better sustainability. Taken together, GovSim enables us to study the mechanisms that underlie sustainable self-government with specificity and scale. We open source the full suite of our research results, including the simulation environment, agent prompts, and a comprehensive web interface.
Claim
As AI systems pervade human life, ensuring that large language models (LLMs) make safe decisions remains a significant challenge.
Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methods Paper
Abstract
We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability guarantee of correctness. These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction. Existing methods in this area suffer from two deficiencies. First, the guarantee stated is not conditionally valid. The trustworthiness of the filtering step may vary based on the topic of the response. Second, because the scoring function is imperfect, the filtering step can remove many valuable and accurate claims. We address both of these challenges via two new conformal methods. First, we generalize the conditional conformal procedure of Gibbs et al. (2023) in order to adaptively issue weaker guarantees when they are required to preserve the utility of the output. Second, we show how to systematically improve the quality of the scoring function via a novel algorithm for differentiating through the conditional conformal procedure. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on biography and medical question-answering datasets.
Claim
We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs).
WorldCoder, a Model-Based LLM Agent: Building World Models by Writing Code and Interacting with the Environment Paper
Abstract
We give a model-based agent that builds a Python program representing its knowledge of the world based on its interactions with the environment. The world model tries to explain its interactions, while also being optimistic about what reward it can achieve. We define this optimism as a logical constraint between a program and a planner. We study our agent on gridworlds, and on task planning, finding our approach is more sample-efficient compared to deep RL, more compute-efficient compared to ReAct-style agents, and that it can transfer its knowledge across environments by editing its code.
Claim
We give a model-based agent that builds a Python program representing its knowledge of the world based on its interactions with the environment.
Aligning LLM Agents by Learning Latent Preference from User Edits Paper
Abstract
We study interactive learning of LLM-based language agents based on user edits made to the agent's output. In a typical setting such as writing assistants, the user interacts with a language agent to generate a response given a context, and may optionally edit the agent response to personalize it based on their latent preference, in addition to improving the correctness. The edit feedback is naturally generated, making it a suitable candidate for improving the agent's alignment with the user's preference, and for reducing the cost of user edits over time. We propose a learning framework, PRELUDE that infers a description of the user's latent preference based on historic edit data. The inferred user preference descriptions are used to define prompts for generating responses in the future. This avoids fine-tuning the agent, which is costly, challenging to scale with the number of users, and may even degrade its performance on other tasks. Furthermore, learning descriptive preference improves interpretability, allowing the user to view and modify the learned preference. However, user preference can be complex, subtle, and vary based on context, making it challenging to learn. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective algorithm named CIPHER that leverages the LLM to infer the user preference for a given context based on user edits. In the future, CIPHER retrieves inferred preferences from the k-closest contexts in the history, and forms an aggregate preference for response generation. We introduce two interactive environments -- summarization and email writing, and use a GPT-4 simulated user for evaluation. On both tasks, CIPHER outperforms several baselines by achieving the lowest edit distance cost while only having a small overhead in LLM query cost. Our analysis reports that user preferences learned by CIPHER show significant similarity to the ground truth latent preferences.
Claim
We study interactive learning of LLM-based language agents based on user edits made to the agent's output.
AvaTaR: Optimizing LLM Agents for Tool Usage via Contrastive Reasoning Paper
Abstract
Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in utilizing external tools and knowledge to boost accuracy and reduce hallucinations. However, developing prompting techniques that enable LLM agents to effectively use these tools and knowledge remains a heuristic and labor-intensive task. Here, we introduce AvaTaR, a novel and automated framework that optimizes an LLM agent to effectively leverage provided tools, improving performance on a given task. During optimization, we design a comparator module to iteratively deliver insightful and comprehensive prompts to the LLM agent by contrastively reasoning between positive and negative examples sampled from training data. We demonstrate AvaTaR on four complex multimodal retrieval datasets featuring textual, visual, and relational information, and three general question-answering (QA) datasets. We find AvaTaR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches across all seven tasks, exhibiting strong generalization ability when applied to novel cases and achieving an average relative improvement of 14% on the Hit@1 metric for the retrieval datasets and 13% for the QA datasets. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/zou-group/avatar.
Claim
Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in utilizing external tools and knowledge to boost accuracy and reduce hallucinations.
Can Large Language Model Agents Simulate Human Trust Behaviors? Paper
Abstract
Large Language Model (LLM) agents have been increasingly adopted as simulation tools to model humans in social science and role-playing applications. However, one fundamental question remains: can LLM agents really simulate human behavior? In this paper, we focus on one critical and elemental behavior in human interactions, trust, and investigate whether LLM agents can simulate human trust behavior. We first find that LLM agents generally exhibit trust behavior, referred to as agent trust, under the framework of Trust Games, which are widely recognized in behavioral economics. Then, we discover that GPT-4 agents manifest high behavioral alignment with humans in terms of trust behavior, indicating the feasibility of simulating human trust behavior with LLM agents. In addition, we probe the biases of agent trust and differences in agent trust towards other LLM agents and humans. We also explore the intrinsic properties of agent trust under conditions including external manipulations and advanced reasoning strategies. Our study provides new insights into the behaviors of LLM agents and the fundamental analogy between LLMs and humans beyond value alignment. We further illustrate broader implications of our discoveries for applications where trust is paramount.
Claim
Large Language Model (LLM) agents have been increasingly adopted as simulation tools to model humans in social science and role-playing applications.
DISCOVERYWORLD: A Virtual Environment for Developing and Evaluating Automated Scientific Discovery Agents Paper
Abstract
Automated scientific discovery promises to accelerate progress across scientific domains. However, developing and evaluating an AI agent's capacity for end-to-end scientific reasoning is challenging as running real-world experiments is often prohibitively expensive or infeasible. In this work we introduce DISCOVERYWORLD, the first virtual environment for developing and benchmarking an agent's ability to perform complete cycles of novel scientific discovery. DISCOVERYWORLD contains a variety of different challenges, covering topics as diverse as radioisotope dating, rocket science, and proteomics, to encourage development of general discovery skills rather than task-specific solutions. DISCOVERYWORLD itself is an inexpensive, simulated, text-based environment (with optional 2D visual overlay). It includes 120 different challenge tasks, spanning eight topics each with three levels of difficulty and several parametric variations. Each task requires an agent to form hypotheses, design and run experiments, analyze results, and act on conclusions. DISCOVERYWORLD further provides three automatic metrics for evaluating performance, based on (a) task completion, (b) task-relevant actions taken, and © the discovered explanatory knowledge. We find that strong baseline agents, that perform well in prior published environments, struggle on most DISCOVERYWORLD tasks, suggesting that DISCOVERYWORLD captures some of the novel challenges of discovery, and thus that DISCOVERYWORLD may help accelerate near-term development and assessment of scientific discovery competency in agents. Code available at: www.github.com/allenai/discoveryworld
Claim
Automated scientific discovery promises to accelerate progress across scientific domains.
Frequency Adaptive Normalization For Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns. To address the non-stationarity, reversible instance normalization has been recently proposed to alleviate impacts from the trend with certain statistical measures, e.g., mean and variance. Although they demonstrate improved predictive accuracy, they are limited to expressing basic trends and are incapable of handling seasonal patterns. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a new instance normalization solution, called frequency adaptive normalization (FAN), which extends instance normalization in handling both dynamic trend and seasonal patterns. Specifically, we employ the Fourier transform to identify instance-wise predominant frequent components that cover most non-stationary factors. Furthermore, the discrepancy of those frequency components between inputs and outputs is explicitly modeled as a prediction task with a simple MLP model. FAN is a model-agnostic method that can be applied to arbitrary predictive backbones. We instantiate FAN on four widely used forecasting models as the backbone and evaluate their prediction performance improvements on eight benchmark datasets. FAN demonstrates significant performance advancement, achieving 7.76% ~ 37.90% average improvements in MSE.
Claim
Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns.
From Similarity to Superiority: Channel Clustering for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.
Claim
Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades.
Symbolic Regression with a Learned Concept Library Paper
Abstract
We present a novel method for symbolic regression (SR), the task of searching for compact programmatic hypotheses that best explain a dataset. The problem is commonly solved using genetic algorithms; we show that we can enhance such methods by inducing a library of abstract textual concepts. Our algorithm, called LaSR, uses zero-shot queries to a large language model (LLM) to discover and evolve concepts occurring in known high-performing hypotheses. We discover new hypotheses using a mix of standard evolutionary steps and LLM-guided steps (obtained through zero-shot LLM queries) conditioned on discovered concepts. Once discovered, hypotheses are used in a new round of concept abstraction and evolution. We validate LaSR on the Feynman equations, a popular SR benchmark, as well as a set of synthetic tasks. On these benchmarks, LaSR substantially outperforms a variety of state-of-the-art SR approaches based on deep learning and evolutionary algorithms. Moreover, we show that LaSR can be used to discover a novel and powerful scaling law for LLMs.
Claim
We present a novel method for symbolic regression (SR), the task of searching for compact programmatic hypotheses that best explain a dataset.
SelfCodeAlign: Self-Alignment for Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Instruction tuning is a supervised fine-tuning approach that significantly improves the ability of large language models (LLMs) to follow human instructions. We propose SelfCodeAlign, the first fully transparent and permissive pipeline for self-aligning code LLMs without extensive human annotations or distillation. SelfCodeAlign employs the same base model for inference throughout the data generation process. It first extracts diverse coding concepts from high-quality seed snippets to generate new tasks. It then samples multiple responses per task, pairs each with test cases, and validates them in a sandbox environment. Finally, passing examples are selected for instruction tuning. In our primary experiments, we use SelfCodeAlign with CodeQwen1.5-7B to generate a dataset of 74k instruction-response pairs. Finetuning on this dataset leads to a model that achieves a 67.1 pass@1 on HumanEval+, surpassing CodeLlama-70B-Instruct despite being ten times smaller. Across all benchmarks, this finetuned model consistently outperforms the original version trained with OctoPack, the previous state-of-the-art method for instruction tuning without human annotations or distillation. Additionally, we show that SelfCodeAlign is effective across LLMs of various sizes, from 3B to 33B, and that the base models can benefit more from alignment with their own data distribution. We further validate each component's effectiveness in our pipeline, showing that SelfCodeAlign outperforms both direct distillation from GPT-4o and leading GPT-3.5-based distillation methods, such as OSS-Instruct and Evol-Instruct. SelfCodeAlign has also led to the creation of StarCoder2-Instruct, the first fully transparent, permissively licensed, and self-aligned code LLM that achieves state-of-the-art coding performance.
Claim
Instruction tuning is a supervised fine-tuning approach that significantly improves the ability of large language models (LLMs) to follow human instructions.
EvoCodeBench: An Evolving Code Generation Benchmark with Domain-Specific Evaluations Paper
Abstract
How to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) in code generation remains an open question. Existing benchmarks have two limitations - data leakage and lack of domain-specific evaluation. The former hurts the fairness of benchmarks, and the latter hinders practitioners from selecting superior LLMs for specific programming domains. To address these two limitations, we propose a new benchmark - EvoCodeBench, which has the following advances: (1) Evolving data. EvoCodeBench will be dynamically updated every period (e.g., 6 months) to avoid data leakage. This paper releases the first version - EvoCodeBench-2403, containing 275 samples from 25 repositories. (2) A domain taxonomy and domain labels. Based on the statistics of open-source communities, we design a programming domain taxonomy consisting of 10 popular domains. Based on the taxonomy, we annotate each sample in EvoCodeBench with a domain label. (3) Domain-specific evaluations. Besides the Pass@k, we compute the Domain-Specific Improvement (DSI) and define LLMs' comfort and strange domains. These evaluations help practitioners select superior LLMs in specific domains and discover the shortcomings of existing LLMs. We evaluate 8 popular LLMs (e.g., gpt-4, DeepSeek Coder) on EvoCodeBench and summarize some insights. EvoCodeBench reveals the actual abilities of these LLMs in real-world repositories. For example, the highest Pass@1 of gpt-4 on EvoCodeBench-2403 is only 20.74%. Besides, we evaluate LLMs in different domains and discover their comfort and strange domains. For example, gpt-4 performs best in most domains but falls behind others in the Internet domain. StarCoder 2-15B unexpectedly performs well in the Database domain and even outperforms 33B LLMs. EvoCodeBench has been released.
Claim
How to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) in code generation remains an open question.
AutoGuide: Automated Generation and Selection of Context-Aware Guidelines for Large Language Model Agents Paper
Abstract
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have empowered AI agents capable of performing various sequential decision-making tasks. However, effectively guiding LLMs to perform well in unfamiliar domains like web navigation, where they lack sufficient knowledge, has proven to be difficult with the demonstration-based in-context learning paradigm. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework, called AutoGuide, which addresses this limitation by automatically generating context-aware guidelines from offline experiences. Importantly, each context-aware guideline is expressed in concise natural language and follows a conditional structure, clearly describing the context where it is applicable. As a result, our guidelines facilitate the provision of relevant knowledge for the agent's current decision-making process, overcoming the limitations of the conventional demonstration-based learning paradigm. Our evaluation demonstrates that AutoGuide significantly outperforms competitive baselines in complex benchmark domains, including real-world web navigation.
Claim
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have empowered AI agents capable of performing various sequential decision-making tasks.
AGILE: A Novel Reinforcement Learning Framework of LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
We introduce a novel reinforcement learning framework of LLM agents named AGILE (AGent that Interacts and Learns from Environments) designed to perform complex conversational tasks with users, leveraging LLMs, memory, tools, and interactions with experts. The agent possesses capabilities beyond conversation, including reflection, tool usage, and expert consultation. We formulate the construction of such an LLM agent as a reinforcement learning (RL) problem, in which the LLM serves as the policy model. We fine-tune the LLM using labeled data of actions and the PPO algorithm. We focus on question answering and release a dataset for agents called ProductQA, comprising challenging questions in online shopping. Our extensive experiments on ProductQA, MedMCQA and HotPotQA show that AGILE agents based on 7B and 13B LLMs trained with PPO can outperform GPT-4 agents. Our ablation study highlights the indispensability of memory, tools, consultation, reflection, and reinforcement learning in achieving the agent's strong performance. Datasets and code are available at https://github.com/bytarnish/AGILE.
Claim
We introduce a novel reinforcement learning framework of LLM agents named AGILE (AGent that Interacts and Learns from Environments) designed to perform complex conversational tasks with users, leveraging LLMs, memory, tools, and interactions with experts.
Length Optimization in Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative. Despite significant efforts to address each of these issues individually, a principled framework that reconciles these two objectives has been missing in the CP literature. In this paper, we develop Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL) - a novel and practical framework that constructs prediction sets with (near-) optimal length while ensuring conditional validity under various classes of covariate shifts, including the key cases of marginal and group-conditional coverage. In the infinite sample regime, we provide strong duality results which indicate that CPL achieves conditional validity and length optimality. In the finite sample regime, we show that CPL constructs conditionally valid prediction sets. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the superior prediction set size performance of CPL compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse real-world and synthetic datasets in classification, regression, and large language model-based multiple choice question answering. An Implementation of our algorithm can be accessed at the following link: https://github.com/shayankiyani98/CP.
Claim
Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP).
Rethinking the Power of Timestamps for Robust Time Series Forecasting: A Global-Local Fusion Perspective Paper
Abstract
Time series forecasting has played a pivotal role across various industries, including finance, transportation, energy, healthcare, and climate. Due to the abundant seasonal information they contain, timestamps possess the potential to offer robust global guidance for forecasting techniques. However, existing works primarily focus on local observations, with timestamps being treated merely as an optional supplement that remains underutilized. When data gathered from the real world is polluted, the absence of global information will damage the robust prediction capability of these algorithms. To address these problems, we propose a novel framework named GLAFF. Within this framework, the timestamps are modeled individually to capture the global dependencies. Working as a plugin, GLAFF adaptively adjusts the combined weights for global and local information, enabling seamless collaboration with any time series forecasting backbone. Extensive experiments conducted on nine real-world datasets demonstrate that GLAFF significantly enhances the average performance of widely used mainstream forecasting models by 12.5%, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art method by 5.5%.
Claim
Time series forecasting has played a pivotal role across various industries, including finance, transportation, energy, healthcare, and climate.
AutoManual: Constructing Instruction Manuals by LLM Agents via Interactive Environmental Learning Paper
Abstract
Large Language Models (LLM) based agents have shown promise in autonomously completing tasks across various domains, e.g., robotics, games, and web navigation. However, these agents typically require elaborate design and expert prompts to solve tasks in specific domains, which limits their adaptability. We introduce AutoManual, a framework enabling LLM agents to autonomously build their understanding through interaction and adapt to new environments. AutoManual categorizes environmental knowledge into diverse rules and optimizes them in an online fashion by two agents: 1) The Planner codes actionable plans based on current rules for interacting with the environment. 2) The Builder updates the rules through a well-structured rule system that facilitates online rule management and essential detail retention. To mitigate hallucinations in managing rules, we introduce a case-conditioned prompting strategy for the Builder. Finally, the Formulator agent compiles these rules into a comprehensive manual. The self-generated manual can not only improve the adaptability but also guide the planning of smaller LLMs while being human-readable. Given only one simple demonstration, AutoManual significantly improves task success rates, achieving 97.4\% with GPT-4-turbo and 86.2\% with GPT-3.5-turbo on ALFWorld benchmark tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minghchen/automanual.
Claim
Large Language Models (LLM) based agents have shown promise in autonomously completing tasks across various domains, e.g., robotics, games, and web navigation.
Is Programming by Example solved by LLMs? Paper
Abstract
Programming-by-Examples (PBE) aims to generate an algorithm from input-output examples. Such systems are practically and theoretically important: from an end-user perspective, they are deployed to millions of people, and from an AI perspective, PBE corresponds to a very general form of few-shot inductive inference. Given the success of Large Language Models (LLMs) in code-generation tasks, we investigate here the extent to which LLMs can be said to have"solved"PBE. We experiment on classic domains such as lists and strings, and an uncommon graphics programming domain not well represented in typical pretraining data. We find that pretrained models are not effective at PBE, but that they can be fine-tuned for much higher performance, provided the test problems are in-distribution. We analyze empirically what causes these models to succeed and fail, and take steps toward understanding how to achieve better out-of-distribution generalization. Collectively these results suggest that LLMs make strong progress toward solving the typical suite of PBE tasks, potentially increasing the flexibility and applicability of PBE systems, while also identifying ways in which LLMs still fall short.
Claim
Programming-by-Examples (PBE) aims to generate an algorithm from input-output examples.
DDN: Dual-domain Dynamic Normalization for Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently achieved remarkable advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) due to their powerful ability of sequence dependence modeling. To date, existing DNN-based TSF methods still suffer from unreliable predictions for real-world data due to its non-stationarity characteristics, i.e., data distribution varies quickly over time. To mitigate this issue, several normalization methods (e.g., SAN) have recently been specifically designed by normalization in a fixed period/window in the time domain. However, these methods still struggle to capture distribution variations, due to the complex time patterns of time series in the time domain. Based on the fact that wavelet transform can decompose time series into a linear combination of different frequencies, which exhibits distribution variations with time-varying periods, we propose a novel Dual-domain Dynamic Normalization (DDN) to dynamically capture distribution variations in both time and frequency domains. Specifically, our DDN tries to eliminate the non-stationarity of time series via both frequency and time domain normalization in a sliding window way. Besides, our DDN can serve as a plug-in-play module, and thus can be easily incorporated into other forecasting models. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets under different forecasting models demonstrate the superiority of our DDN over other normalization methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Hank0626/DDN .
Claim
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently achieved remarkable advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) due to their powerful ability of sequence dependence modeling.
Retrieval-Augmented Diffusion Models for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
While time series diffusion models have received considerable focus from many recent works, the performance of existing models remains highly unstable. Factors limiting time series diffusion models include insufficient time series datasets and the absence of guidance. To address these limitations, we propose a Retrieval- Augmented Time series Diffusion model (RATD). The framework of RATD consists of two parts: an embedding-based retrieval process and a reference-guided diffusion model. In the first part, RATD retrieves the time series that are most relevant to historical time series from the database as references. The references are utilized to guide the denoising process in the second part. Our approach allows leveraging meaningful samples within the database to aid in sampling, thus maximizing the utilization of datasets. Meanwhile, this reference-guided mechanism also compensates for the deficiencies of existing time series diffusion models in terms of guidance. Experiments and visualizations on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, particularly in complicated prediction tasks.
Claim
While time series diffusion models have received considerable focus from many recent works, the performance of existing models remains highly unstable.
Time-FFM: Towards LM-Empowered Federated Foundation Model for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential of language models (LMs) for time series analysis, dedicated parameters for various downstream forecasting tasks need training, which hinders the common knowledge sharing across domains. Moreover, data owners may hesitate to share the access to local data due to privacy concerns and copyright protection, which makes it impossible to simply construct a FM on cross-domain training instances. To address these issues, we propose Time-FFM, a Federated Foundation Model for Time series forecasting by leveraging pretrained LMs. Specifically, we begin by transforming time series into the modality of text tokens. To bootstrap LMs for time series reasoning, we propose a prompt adaption module to determine domain-customized prompts dynamically instead of artificially. Given the data heterogeneity across domains, we design a personalized federated training strategy by learning global encoders and local prediction heads. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that Time-FFM outperforms state-of-the-arts and promises effective few-shot and zero-shot forecaster.
Claim
Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity.
Are Self-Attentions Effective for Time Series Forecasting? Paper
Abstract
Time series forecasting is crucial for applications across multiple domains and various scenarios. Although Transformer models have dramatically advanced the landscape of forecasting, their effectiveness remains debated. Recent findings have indicated that simpler linear models might outperform complex Transformer-based approaches, highlighting the potential for more streamlined architectures. In this paper, we shift the focus from evaluating the overall Transformer architecture to specifically examining the effectiveness of self-attention for time series forecasting. To this end, we introduce a new architecture, Cross-Attention-only Time Series transformer (CATS), that rethinks the traditional Transformer framework by eliminating self-attention and leveraging cross-attention mechanisms instead. By establishing future horizon-dependent parameters as queries and enhanced parameter sharing, our model not only improves long-term forecasting accuracy but also reduces the number of parameters and memory usage. Extensive experiment across various datasets demonstrates that our model achieves superior performance with the lowest mean squared error and uses fewer parameters compared to existing models. The implementation of our model is available at: https://github.com/dongbeank/CATS.
Claim
Time series forecasting is crucial for applications across multiple domains and various scenarios.
IaC-Eval: A Code Generation Benchmark for Cloud Infrastructure-as-Code Programs Paper
Abstract
Infrastructure-as-Code (IaC), an important component of cloud computing, allows the definition of cloud infrastructure in high-level programs. However, developing IaC programs is challenging, complicated by factors that include the burgeoning complexity of the cloud ecosystem (e.g., diversity of cloud services and workloads), and the relative scarcity of IaC-specific code examples and public repositories. While large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in general code generation and could potentially aid in IaC development, no benchmarks currently exist for evaluating their ability to generate IaC code. We present IaC-Eval, a first step in this research direction. IaC-Eval’s dataset includes 458 human-curated scenarios covering a wide range of popular AWS services, at varying difficulty levels. Each scenario mainly comprises a natural language IaC problem description and an infrastructure intent specification. The former is fed as user input to the LLM, while the latter is a general notion used to verify if the generated IaC program conforms to the user’s intent; by making explicit the problem’s requirements that can encompass various cloud services, resources and internal infrastructure details. Our in-depth evaluation shows that contemporary LLMs perform poorly on IaC-Eval, with the top-performing model, GPT-4, obtaining a pass@1 accuracy of 19.36%. In contrast, it scores 86.6% on EvalPlus, a popular Python code generation benchmark, highlighting a need for advancements in this domain. We open-source the IaC-Eval dataset and evaluation framework at https://github.com/autoiac-project/iac-eval to enable future research on LLM-based IaC code generation.
Claim
Infrastructure-as-Code (IaC), an important component of cloud computing, allows the definition of cloud infrastructure in high-level programs.
Scaling Law for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Scaling law that rewards large datasets, complex models and enhanced data granularity has been observed in various fields of deep learning. Yet, studies on time series forecasting have cast doubt on scaling behaviors of deep learning methods for time series forecasting: while more training data improves performance, more capable models do not always outperform less capable models, and longer input horizons may hurt performance for some models. We propose a theory for scaling law for time series forecasting that can explain these seemingly abnormal behaviors. We take into account the impact of dataset size and model complexity, as well as time series data granularity, particularly focusing on the look-back horizon, an aspect that has been unexplored in previous theories. Furthermore, we empirically evaluate various models using a diverse set of time series forecasting datasets, which (1) verifies the validity of scaling law on dataset size and model complexity within the realm of time series forecasting, and (2) validates our theoretical framework, particularly regarding the influence of look back horizon. We hope our findings may inspire new models targeting time series forecasting datasets of limited size, as well as large foundational datasets and models for time series forecasting in future work. Code for our experiments has been made public at https://github.com/JingzheShi/ScalingLawForTimeSeriesForecasting.
Claim
Scaling law that rewards large datasets, complex models and enhanced data granularity has been observed in various fields of deep learning.
StreamBench: Towards Benchmarking Continuous Improvement of Language Agents Paper
Abstract
Recent works have shown that large language model (LLM) agents are able to improve themselves from experience, which is an important ability for continuous enhancement post-deployment. However, existing benchmarks primarily evaluate their innate capabilities and do not assess their ability to improve over time. To address this gap, we introduce StreamBench, a pioneering benchmark designed to evaluate the continuous improvement of LLM agents over an input-feedback sequence. StreamBench simulates an online learning environment where LLMs receive a continuous flow of feedback stream and iteratively enhance their performance. In addition, we propose several simple yet effective baselines for improving LLMs on StreamBench, and provide a comprehensive analysis to identify critical components that contribute to successful streaming strategies. Our work serves as a stepping stone towards developing effective online learning strategies for LLMs, paving the way for more adaptive AI systems in streaming scenarios. Source code: https://github.com/stream-bench/stream-bench. Benchmark website: https://stream-bench.github.io.
Claim
Recent works have shown that large language model (LLM) agents are able to improve themselves from experience, which is an important ability for continuous enhancement post-deployment.
Ada-MSHyper: Adaptive Multi-Scale Hypergraph Transformer for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Although transformer-based methods have achieved great success in multi-scale temporal pattern interaction modeling, two key challenges limit their further development: (1) Individual time points contain less semantic information, and leveraging attention to model pair-wise interactions may cause the information utilization bottleneck. (2) Multiple inherent temporal variations (e.g., rising, falling, and fluctuating) entangled in temporal patterns. To this end, we propose Adaptive Multi-Scale Hypergraph Transformer (Ada-MSHyper) for time series forecasting. Specifically, an adaptive hypergraph learning module is designed to provide foundations for modeling group-wise interactions, then a multi-scale interaction module is introduced to promote more comprehensive pattern interactions at different scales. In addition, a node and hyperedge constraint mechanism is introduced to cluster nodes with similar semantic information and differentiate the temporal variations within each scales. Extensive experiments on 11 real-world datasets demonstrate that Ada-MSHyper achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing prediction errors by an average of 4.56%, 10.38%, and 4.97% in MSE for long-range, short-range, and ultra-long-range time series forecasting, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/shangzongjiang/Ada-MSHyper.
Claim
Although transformer-based methods have achieved great success in multi-scale temporal pattern interaction modeling, two key challenges limit their further development: (1) Individual time points contain less semantic information, and leveraging attention to model pair-wise interactions may cause the information utilization bottleneck.
CodeRosetta: Pushing the Boundaries of Unsupervised Code Translation for Parallel Programming Paper
Abstract
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have renewed interest in automatic programming language translation. Encoder-decoder transformer models, in particular, have shown promise in translating between different programming languages. However, translating between a language and its high-performance computing (HPC) extensions remains underexplored due to challenges such as complex parallel semantics. In this paper, we introduce CodeRosetta, an encoder-decoder transformer model designed specifically for translating between programming languages and their HPC extensions. CodeRosetta is evaluated on C++ to CUDA and Fortran to C++ translation tasks. It uses a customized learning framework with tailored pretraining and training objectives to effectively capture both code semantics and parallel structural nuances, enabling bidirectional translation. Our results show that CodeRosetta outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in C++ to CUDA translation by 2.9 BLEU and 1.72 CodeBLEU points while improving compilation accuracy by 6.05%. Compared to general closed-source LLMs, our method improves C++ to CUDA translation by 22.08 BLEU and 14.39 CodeBLEU, with 2.75% higher compilation accuracy. Finally, CodeRosetta exhibits proficiency in Fortran to parallel C++ translation, marking it, to our knowledge, as the first encoder-decoder model for this complex task, improving CodeBLEU by at least 4.63 points compared to closed-source and open-code LLMs.
Claim
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have renewed interest in automatic programming language translation.
Rethinking Fourier Transform from A Basis Functions Perspective for Long-term Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
The interaction between Fourier transform and deep learning opens new avenues for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). We propose a new perspective to reconsider the Fourier transform from a basis functions perspective. Specifically, the real and imaginary parts of the frequency components can be viewed as the coefficients of cosine and sine basis functions at tiered frequency levels, respectively. We argue existing Fourier-based methods do not involve basis functions thus fail to interpret frequency coefficients precisely and consider the time-frequency relationship sufficiently, leading to inconsistent starting cycles and inconsistent series length issues. Accordingly, a novel Fourier basis mapping (FBM) method addresses these issues by mixing time and frequency domain features through Fourier basis expansion. Differing from existing approaches, FBM (i) embeds the discrete Fourier transform with basis functions, and then (ii) can enable plug-and-play in various types of neural networks for better performance. FBM extracts explicit frequency features while preserving temporal characteristics, enabling the mapping network to capture the time-frequency relationships. By incorporating our unique time-frequency features, the FBM variants can enhance any type of networks like linear, multilayer-perceptron-based, transformer-based, and Fourier-based networks, achieving state-of-the-art LTSF results on diverse real-world datasets with just one or three fully connected layers. The code is available at: https://github.com/runze1223/Fourier-Basis-Mapping.
Claim
The interaction between Fourier transform and deep learning opens new avenues for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF).
DeformableTST: Transformer for Time Series Forecasting without Over-reliance on Patching Paper
Abstract
With the proposal of patching technique in time series forecasting, Transformer-based models have achieved compelling performance and gained great interest from the time series community. But at the same time, we observe a new problem that the recent Transformer-based models are overly reliant on patching to achieve ideal performance, which limits their applicability to some forecasting tasks unsuitable for patching. In this paper, we intent to handle this emerging issue. Through diving into the relationship between patching and full attention (the core mechanism in Transformer-based models), we further find out the reason behind this issue is that full attention relies overly on the guidance of patching to focus on the important time points and learn non-trivial temporal representation. Based on this finding, we propose DeformableTST as an effective solution to this emerging issue. Specifically, we propose deformable attention, a sparse attention mechanism that can better focus on the important time points by itself, to get rid of the need of patching. And we also adopt a hierarchical structure to alleviate the efficiency issue caused by the removal of patching. Experimentally, our DeformableTST achieves the consistent state-of-the-art performance in a broader range of time series tasks, especially achieving promising performance in forecasting tasks unsuitable for patching, therefore successfully reducing the reliance on patching and broadening the applicability of Transformer-based models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/luodhhh/DeformableTST .
Claim
With the proposal of patching technique in time series forecasting, Transformer-based models have achieved compelling performance and gained great interest from the time series community.
Parsimony or Capability? Decomposition Delivers Both in Long-term Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, characterized by extensive input sequences, as opposed to the shorter spans typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences inherently offer richer information for enhanced predictive precision, prevailing studies often respond by escalating model complexity. These intricate models can inflate into millions of parameters, resulting in prohibitive parameter scales. Our study demonstrates, through both analytical and empirical evidence, that decomposition is key to containing excessive model inflation while achieving uniformly superior and robust results across various datasets. Remarkably, by tailoring decomposition to the intrinsic dynamics of time series data, our proposed model outperforms existing benchmarks, using over 99 \% fewer parameters than the majority of competing methods. Through this work, we aim to unleash the power of a restricted set of parameters by capitalizing on domain characteristics--a timely reminder that in the realm of LTSF, bigger is not invariably better.
Claim
Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, characterized by extensive input sequences, as opposed to the shorter spans typical of traditional approaches.
Attractor Memory for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting: A Chaos Perspective Paper
Abstract
In long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks, an increasing number of models have acknowledged that discrete time series originate from continuous dynamic systems and have attempted to model their dynamical structures. Recognizing the chaotic nature of real-world data, our model, \textbf{\textit{Attraos}}, incorporates chaos theory into LTSF, perceiving real-world time series as observations from unknown high-dimensional chaotic dynamic systems. Under the concept of attractor invariance, Attraos utilizes non-parametric Phase Space Reconstruction embedding and the proposed multi-scale dynamic memory unit to memorize historical dynamics structure and predicts by a frequency-enhanced local evolution strategy. Detailed theoretical analysis and abundant empirical evidence consistently show that Attraos outperforms various LTSF methods on mainstream LTSF datasets and chaotic datasets with only one-twelfth of the parameters compared to PatchTST.
Claim
In long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks, an increasing number of models have acknowledged that discrete time series originate from continuous dynamic systems and have attempted to model their dynamical structures.
HYSYNTH: Context-Free LLM Approximation for Guiding Program Synthesis Paper
Abstract
Many structured prediction and reasoning tasks can be framed as program synthesis problems, where the goal is to generate a program in a domain-specific language (DSL) that transforms input data into the desired output. Unfortunately, purely neural approaches, such as large language models (LLMs), often fail to produce fully correct programs in unfamiliar DSLs, while purely symbolic methods based on combinatorial search scale poorly to complex problems. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce a hybrid approach, where LLM completions for a given task are used to learn a task-specific, context-free surrogate model, which is then used to guide program synthesis. We evaluate this hybrid approach on three domains, and show that it outperforms both unguided search and direct sampling from LLMs, as well as existing program synthesizers.
Claim
Many structured prediction and reasoning tasks can be framed as program synthesis problems, where the goal is to generate a program in a domain-specific language (DSL) that transforms input data into the desired output.
Boosted Conformal Prediction Intervals Paper
Abstract
This paper introduces a boosted conformal procedure designed to tailor conformalized prediction intervals toward specific desired properties, such as enhanced conditional coverage or reduced interval length. We employ machine learning techniques, notably gradient boosting, to systematically improve upon a predefined conformity score function. This process is guided by carefully constructed loss functions that measure the deviation of prediction intervals from the targeted properties. The procedure operates post-training, relying solely on model predictions and without modifying the trained model (e.g., the deep network). Systematic experiments demonstrate that starting from conventional conformal methods, our boosted procedure achieves substantial improvements in reducing interval length and decreasing deviation from target conditional coverage.
Claim
This paper introduces a boosted conformal procedure designed to tailor conformalized prediction intervals toward specific desired properties, such as enhanced conditional coverage or reduced interval length.
Reinforcing LLM Agents via Policy Optimization with Action Decomposition Paper
Abstract
Language models as intelligent agents push the boundaries of sequential decision-making agents but struggle with limited knowledge of environmental dynamics and exponentially huge action space. Recent efforts like GLAM and TWOSOME manually constrain the action space to a restricted subset and employ reinforcement learning to align agents’ knowledge with specific environments. However, they overlook fine-grained credit assignments for intra-action tokens, which is essential for efficient language agent optimization, and rely on human’s prior knowledge to restrict action space. This paper proposes decomposing language agent optimization from the action level to the token level, offering finer supervision for each intra-action token and manageable optimization complexity in environments with unrestricted action spaces. Beginning with the simplification of flattening all actions, we theoretically explore the discrepancies between action-level optimization and this naive token-level optimization. We then derive the Bellman backup with Action Decomposition (BAD) to integrate credit assignments for both intra-action and inter-action tokens, effectively eliminating the discrepancies. Implementing BAD within the PPO algorithm, we introduce Policy Optimization with Action Decomposition (POAD). POAD benefits from a finer-grained credit assignment process and lower optimization complexity, leading to enhanced learning efficiency and generalization abilities in aligning language agents with interactive environments. We validate POAD across diverse testbeds, with results affirming the advantages of our approach and the correctness of our theoretical analysis 1 .
Claim
Language models as intelligent agents push the boundaries of sequential decision-making agents but struggle with limited knowledge of environmental dynamics and exponentially huge action space.
UrbanKGent: A Unified Large Language Model Agent Framework for Urban Knowledge Graph Construction Paper
Abstract
Urban knowledge graph has recently worked as an emerging building block to distill critical knowledge from multi-sourced urban data for diverse urban application scenarios. Despite its promising benefits, urban knowledge graph construction (UrbanKGC) still heavily relies on manual effort, hindering its potential advancement. This paper presents UrbanKGent, a unified large language model agent framework, for urban knowledge graph construction. Specifically, we first construct the knowledgeable instruction set for UrbanKGC tasks (such as relational triplet extraction and knowledge graph completion) via heterogeneity-aware and geospatial-infused instruction generation. Moreover, we propose a tool-augmented iterative trajectory refinement module to enhance and refine the trajectories distilled from GPT-4. Through hybrid instruction fine-tuning with augmented trajectories on Llama 2 and Llama 3 family, we obtain UrbanKGC agent family, consisting of UrbanKGent-⅞/13B version. We perform a comprehensive evaluation on two real-world datasets using both human and GPT-4 self-evaluation. The experimental results demonstrate that UrbanKGent family can not only significantly outperform 31 baselines in UrbanKGC tasks, but also surpass the state-of-the-art LLM, GPT-4, by more than 10% with approximately 20 times lower cost. Compared with the existing benchmark, the UrbanKGent family could help construct an UrbanKG with hundreds of times richer relationships using only one-fifth of the data. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/UrbanKGent.
Claim
Urban knowledge graph has recently worked as an emerging building block to distill critical knowledge from multi-sourced urban data for diverse urban application scenarios.
BACKTIME: Backdoor Attacks on Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is a fundamental task with numerous real-world applications, such as transportation, climate, and epidemiology. While a myriad of powerful deep learning models have been developed for this task, few works have explored the robustness of MTS forecasting models to malicious attacks, which is crucial for their trustworthy employment in high-stake scenarios. To address this gap, we dive deep into the backdoor attacks on MTS forecasting models and propose an effective attack method named BackTime.By subtly injecting a few stealthy triggers into the MTS data, BackTime can alter the predictions of the forecasting model according to the attacker's intent. Specifically, BackTime first identifies vulnerable timestamps in the data for poisoning, and then adaptively synthesizes stealthy and effective triggers by solving a bi-level optimization problem with a GNN-based trigger generator. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets and state-of-the-art MTS forecasting models demonstrate the effectiveness, versatility, and stealthiness of \method{} attacks. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/xiaolin-cs/BackTime}.
Claim
Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is a fundamental task with numerous real-world applications, such as transportation, climate, and epidemiology.
An Information Theoretic Perspective on Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a general notion of uncertainty, with larger sets associated with higher degrees of uncertainty. In this work, we leverage information theory to connect conformal prediction to other notions of uncertainty. More precisely, we prove three different ways to upper bound the intrinsic uncertainty, as described by the conditional entropy of the target variable given the inputs, by combining CP with information theoretical inequalities. Moreover, we demonstrate two direct and useful applications of such connection between conformal prediction and information theory: (i) more principled and effective conformal training objectives that generalize previous approaches and enable end-to-end training of machine learning models from scratch, and (ii) a natural mechanism to incorporate side information into conformal prediction. We empirically validate both applications in centralized and federated learning settings, showing our theoretical results translate to lower inefficiency (average prediction set size) for popular CP methods.
Claim
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability.
Divide-and-Conquer Meets Consensus: Unleashing the Power of Functions in Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Despite recent progress made by large language models in code generation, they still struggle with programs that meet complex requirements. Recent work utilizes plan-and-solve decomposition to decrease the complexity and leverage self-tests to refine the generated program. Yet, planning deep-inside requirements in advance can be challenging, and the tests need to be accurate to accomplish self-improvement. To this end, we propose FunCoder, a code generation framework incorporating the divide-and-conquer strategy with functional consensus. Specifically, FunCoder recursively branches off sub-functions as smaller goals during code generation, represented by a tree hierarchy. These sub-functions are then composited to attain more complex objectives. Additionally, we designate functions via a consensus formed by identifying similarities in program behavior, mitigating error propagation. FunCoder outperforms state-of-the-art methods by +9.8% on average in HumanEval, MBPP, xCodeEval and MATH with GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Moreover, our method demonstrates superiority on smaller models: With FunCoder, StableCode-3b surpasses GPT-3.5 by +18.6% and achieves 97.7% of GPT-4's performance on HumanEval. Further analysis reveals that our proposed dynamic function decomposition is capable of handling complex requirements, and the functional consensus prevails over self-testing in correctness evaluation.
Claim
Despite recent progress made by large language models in code generation, they still struggle with programs that meet complex requirements.
Star-Agents: Automatic Data Optimization with LLM Agents for Instruction Tuning Paper
Abstract
The efficacy of large language models (LLMs) on downstream tasks usually hinges on instruction tuning, which relies critically on the quality of training data. Unfortunately, collecting high-quality and diverse data is both expensive and time-consuming. To mitigate this issue, we propose a novel Star-Agents framework, which automates the enhancement of data quality across datasets through multi-agent collaboration and assessment. The framework adopts a three-pronged strategy. It initially generates diverse instruction data with multiple LLM agents through a bespoke sampling method. Subsequently, the generated data undergo a rigorous evaluation using a dual-model method that assesses both difficulty and quality. Finaly, the above process evolves in a dynamic refinement phase, where more effective LLMs are prioritized, enhancing the overall data quality. Our empirical studies, including instruction tuning experiments with models such as Pythia and LLaMA, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Optimized datasets have achieved substantial improvements, with an average increase of 12% and notable gains in specific metrics, such as a 40% improvement in Fermi, as evidenced by benchmarks like MT-bench, Vicuna bench, and WizardLM testset.
Claim
The efficacy of large language models (LLMs) on downstream tasks usually hinges on instruction tuning, which relies critically on the quality of training data.
Self-Calibrating Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decision-making. Recognizing the complementary roles of point and interval predictions, we introduce Self-Calibrating Conformal Prediction, a method that combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction to deliver calibrated point predictions alongside prediction intervals with finite-sample validity conditional on these predictions. To achieve this, we extend the original Venn-Abers procedure from binary classification to regression. Our theoretical framework supports analyzing conformal prediction methods that involve calibrating model predictions and subsequently constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals on the same data, where the conditioning set or conformity scores may depend on the calibrated predictions. Real-data experiments show that our method improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers a practical alternative to feature-conditional validity.
Claim
In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decision-making.
Conformal Prediction for Class-wise Coverage via Augmented Label Rank Calibration Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage guarantee has been extensively studied for classification problems, CP often produces large prediction sets which may not be practically useful. This issue is exacerbated for the setting of class-conditional coverage on imbalanced classification tasks with many and/or imbalanced classes. This paper proposes the Rank Calibrated Class-conditional CP (RC3P) algorithm to reduce the prediction set sizes to achieve class-conditional coverage, where the valid coverage holds for each class. In contrast to the standard class-conditional CP (CCP) method that uniformly thresholds the class-wise conformity score for each class, the augmented label rank calibration step allows RC3P to selectively iterate this class-wise thresholding subroutine only for a subset of classes whose class-wise top-k error is small. We prove that agnostic to the classifier and data distribution, RC3P achieves class-wise coverage. We also show that RC3P reduces the size of prediction sets compared to the CCP method. Comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that RC3P achieves class-wise coverage and 26.25% reduction in prediction set sizes on average.
Claim
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability.
Synthetic Programming Elicitation for Text-to-Code in Very Low-Resource Programming and Formal Languages Paper
Abstract
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) for code applications have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot fluency and instruction following on challenging code related tasks ranging from test case generation to self-repair. Unsurprisingly, however, models struggle to compose syntactically valid programs in programming languages unrepresented in pre-training, referred to as very low-resource Programming Languages (VLPLs). VLPLs appear in crucial settings, including domain-specific languages for internal tools, tool-chains for legacy languages, and formal verification frameworks. Inspired by a technique called natural programming elicitation, we propose designing an intermediate language that LLMs"naturally"know how to use and which can be automatically compiled to a target VLPL. When LLMs generate code that lies outside of this intermediate language, we use compiler techniques to repair the code into programs in the intermediate language. Overall, we introduce \emph{synthetic programming elicitation and compilation} (SPEAC), an approach that enables LLMs to generate syntactically valid code even for VLPLs. We empirically evaluate the performance of SPEAC in a case study for the UCLID5 formal verification language and find that, compared to existing retrieval and fine-tuning baselines, SPEAC produces syntactically correct programs more frequently and without sacrificing semantic correctness.
Claim
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) for code applications have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot fluency and instruction following on challenging code related tasks ranging from test case generation to self-repair.
Hints-In-Browser: Benchmarking Language Models for Programming Feedback Generation Paper
Abstract
Generative AI and large language models hold great promise in enhancing programming education by generating individualized feedback and hints for learners. Recent works have primarily focused on improving the quality of generated feedback to achieve human tutors' quality. While quality is an important performance criterion, it is not the only criterion to optimize for real-world educational deployments. In this paper, we benchmark language models for programming feedback generation across several performance criteria, including quality, cost, time, and data privacy. The key idea is to leverage recent advances in the new paradigm of in-browser inference that allow running these models directly in the browser, thereby providing direct benefits across cost and data privacy. To boost the feedback quality of small models compatible with in-browser inference engines, we develop a fine-tuning pipeline based on GPT-4 generated synthetic data. We showcase the efficacy of fine-tuned Llama3-8B and Phi3-3.8B 4-bit quantized models using WebLLM's in-browser inference engine on three different Python programming datasets. We will release the full implementation along with a web app and datasets to facilitate further research on in-browser language models.
Claim
Generative AI and large language models hold great promise in enhancing programming education by generating individualized feedback and hints for learners.
PGN: The RNN's New Successor is Effective for Long-Range Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Due to the recurrent structure of RNN, the long information propagation path poses limitations in capturing long-term dependencies, gradient explosion/vanishing issues, and inefficient sequential execution. Based on this, we propose a novel paradigm called Parallel Gated Network (PGN) as the new successor to RNN. PGN directly captures information from previous time steps through the designed Historical Information Extraction (HIE) layer and leverages gated mechanisms to select and fuse it with the current time step information. This reduces the information propagation path to \(\mathcal{O}(1)\), effectively addressing the limitations of RNN. To enhance PGN's performance in long-range time series forecasting tasks, we propose a novel temporal modeling framework called Temporal PGN (TPGN). TPGN incorporates two branches to comprehensively capture the semantic information of time series. One branch utilizes PGN to capture long-term periodic patterns while preserving their local characteristics. The other branch employs patches to capture short-term information and aggregate the global representation of the series. TPGN achieves a theoretical complexity of \(\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{L})\), ensuring efficiency in its operations. Experimental results on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and high efficiency of TPGN, further confirming the effectiveness of PGN as the new successor to RNN in long-range time series forecasting. The code is available in this repository: \url{https://github.com/Water2sea/TPGN}.
Claim
Due to the recurrent structure of RNN, the long information propagation path poses limitations in capturing long-term dependencies, gradient explosion/vanishing issues, and inefficient sequential execution.
Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are guaranteed to cover the (unknown) true test output with a user-specified probability. Nevertheless, this guarantee is violated when the data is subjected to adversarial attacks, which often result in a significant loss of coverage. Recently, several approaches have been put forward to recover CP guarantees in this setting. These approaches leverage variations of randomised smoothing to produce conservative sets which account for the effect of the adversarial perturbations. They are, however, limited in that they only support \(\ell^2\)-bounded perturbations and classification tasks. This paper introduces VRCP (Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction), a new framework that leverages recent neural network verification methods to recover coverage guarantees under adversarial attacks. Our VRCP method is the first to support perturbations bounded by arbitrary norms including \(\ell^1\), \(\ell^2\), and \(\ell^\infty\), as well as regression tasks. We evaluate and compare our approach on image classification tasks (CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and TinyImageNet) and regression tasks for deep reinforcement learning environments. In every case, VRCP achieves above nominal coverage and yields significantly more efficient and informative prediction regions than the SotA.
Claim
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable.
Multi-model Ensemble Conformal Prediction in Dynamic Environments Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has been developed to address data distribution shifts in dynamic environments. However, the efficiency of prediction sets varies depending on the learning model used. Employing a single fixed model may not consistently offer the best performance in dynamic environments with unknown data distribution shifts. To address this issue, we introduce a novel adaptive conformal prediction framework, where the model used for creating prediction sets is selected on the fly from multiple candidate models. The proposed algorithm is proven to achieve strongly adaptive regret over all intervals while maintaining valid coverage. Experiments on real and synthetic datasets corroborate that the proposed approach consistently yields more efficient prediction sets while maintaining valid coverage, outperforming alternative methods.
Claim
Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability.
Structured Matrix Basis for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Interpretable Dynamics Paper
Abstract
Multivariate time series forecasting is of central importance in modern intelligent decision systems. The dynamics of multivariate time series are jointly characterized by temporal dependencies and spatial correlations. Hence, it is equally important to build the forecasting models from both perspectives. The real-world multivariate time series data often presents spatial correlations that show structures and evolve dynamically. To capture such dynamic spatial structures, the existing forecasting approaches often rely on a two-stage learning process (learning dynamic series representations and then generating spatial structures), which is sensitive to the small time-window input data and has high variance. To address this, we propose a novel forecasting model with a structured matrix basis. At its core is a dynamic spatial structure generation function whose output space is well-constrained and the generated structures have lower variance, meanwhile, it is more expressive and can offer interpretable dynamics. This is achieved via a novel structured parameterization and imposing structure regularization on the matrix basis. The resulting forecasting model can achieve up to 8 . 5% improvements over the existing methods on six benchmark datasets, and meanwhile, it enables us to gain insights into the dynamics of underlying systems.
Claim
Multivariate time series forecasting is of central importance in modern intelligent decision systems.
DACO: Towards Application-Driven and Comprehensive Data Analysis via Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Data analysis is a crucial analytical process to generate in-depth studies and conclusive insights to comprehensively answer a given user query for tabular data. In this work, we aim to propose new resources and benchmarks to inspire future research on this crucial yet challenging and under-explored task. However, collecting data analysis annotations curated by experts can be prohibitively expensive. We propose to automatically generate high-quality answer annotations leveraging the code-generation capabilities of LLMs with a multi-turn prompting technique. We construct the DACO dataset, containing (1) 440 databases (of tabular data) collected from real-world scenarios, (2) ~2k query-answer pairs that can serve as weak supervision for model training, and (3) a concentrated but high-quality test set with human refined annotations that serves as our main evaluation benchmark. We train a 6B supervised fine-tuning (SFT) model on DACO dataset, and find that the SFT model learns reasonable data analysis capabilities. To further align the models with human preference, we use reinforcement learning to encourage generating analysis perceived by human as helpful, and design a set of dense rewards to propagate the sparse human preference reward to intermediate code generation steps. Our DACO-RL algorithm is evaluated by human annotators to produce more helpful answers than SFT model in 57.72% cases, validating the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm. Data and code are released at https://github.com/shirley-wu/daco
Claim
Data analysis is a crucial analytical process to generate in-depth studies and conclusive insights to comprehensively answer a given user query for tabular data.
Analysing Multi-Task Regression via Random Matrix Theory with Application to Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.
Claim
In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions.
On the Power of Small-size Graph Neural Networks for Linear Programming Paper
Abstract
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have recently emerged as powerful tools for addressing complex optimization problems. It has been theoretically demonstrated that GNNs can universally approximate the solution mapping functions of linear programming (LP) problems. However, these theoretical results typically require GNNs to have large parameter sizes. Conversely, empirical experiments have shown that relatively small GNNs can solve LPs effectively, revealing a significant discrepancy between theoretical predictions and practical observations. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by providing a theoretical foundation for the effectiveness of smaller GNNs. We prove that polylogarithmic-depth, constant-width GNNs are sufficient to solve packing and covering LPs, two widely used classes of LPs. Our proof leverages the capability of GNNs to simulate a variant of the gradient descent algorithm on a carefully selected potential function. Additionally, we introduce a new GNN architecture, termed GD-Net. Experimental results demonstrate that GD-Net significantly outperforms conventional GNN structures while using fewer parameters.
Claim
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have recently emerged as powerful tools for addressing complex optimization problems.
Learning Cut Generating Functions for Integer Programming Paper
Abstract
The branch-and-cut algorithm is the method of choice to solve large scale integer programming problems in practice. A key ingredient of branch-and-cut is the use of cutting planes which are derived constraints that reduce the search space for an optimal solution. Selecting effective cutting planes to produce small branch-and-cut trees is a critical challenge in the branch-and-cut algorithm. Recent advances have employed a data-driven approach to select optimal cutting planes from a parameterized family, aimed at reducing the branch-and-bound tree size (in expectation) for a given distribution of integer programming instances. We extend this idea to the selection of the best cut generating function (CGF), which is a tool in the integer programming literature for generating a wide variety of cutting planes that generalize the well-known Gomory Mixed-Integer (GMI) cutting planes. We provide rigorous sample complexity bounds for the selection of an effective CGF from certain parameterized families that provably performs well for any specified distribution on the problem instances. Our empirical results show that the selected CGF can outperform the GMI cuts for certain distributions. Additionally, we explore the sample complexity of using neural networks for instance-dependent CGF selection.
Claim
The branch-and-cut algorithm is the method of choice to solve large scale integer programming problems in practice.
Introducing Spectral Attention for Long-Range Dependency in Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Sequence modeling faces challenges in capturing long-range dependencies across diverse tasks. Recent linear and transformer-based forecasters have shown superior performance in time series forecasting. However, they are constrained by their inherent inability to effectively address long-range dependencies in time series data, primarily due to using fixed-size inputs for prediction. Furthermore, they typically sacrifice essential temporal correlation among consecutive training samples by shuffling them into mini-batches. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a fast and effective Spectral Attention mechanism, which preserves temporal correlations among samples and facilitates the handling of long-range information while maintaining the base model structure. Spectral Attention preserves long-period trends through a low-pass filter and facilitates gradient to flow between samples. Spectral Attention can be seamlessly integrated into most sequence models, allowing models with fixed-sized look-back windows to capture long-range dependencies over thousands of steps. Through extensive experiments on 11 real-world time series datasets using 7 recent forecasting models, we consistently demonstrate the efficacy of our Spectral Attention mechanism, achieving state-of-the-art results.
Claim
Sequence modeling faces challenges in capturing long-range dependencies across diverse tasks.
CondTSF: One-line Plugin of Dataset Condensation for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Dataset condensation is a newborn technique that generates a small dataset that can be used in training deep neural networks to lower training costs. The objective of dataset condensation is to ensure that the model trained with the synthetic dataset can perform comparably to the model trained with full datasets. However, existing methods predominantly concentrate on classification tasks, posing challenges in their adaptation to time series forecasting (TS-forecasting). This challenge arises from disparities in the evaluation of synthetic data. In classification, the synthetic data is considered well-distilled if the model trained with the full dataset and the model trained with the synthetic dataset yield identical labels for the same input, regardless of variations in output logits distribution. Conversely, in TS-forecasting, the effectiveness of synthetic data distillation is determined by the distance between predictions of the two models. The synthetic data is deemed well-distilled only when all data points within the predictions are similar. Consequently, TS-forecasting has a more rigorous evaluation methodology compared to classification. To mitigate this gap, we theoretically analyze the optimization objective of dataset condensation for TS-forecasting and propose a new one-line plugin of dataset condensation designated as Dataset Condensation for Time Series Forecasting (CondTSF) based on our analysis. Plugging CondTSF into previous dataset condensation methods facilitates a reduction in the distance between the predictions of the model trained with the full dataset and the model trained with the synthetic dataset, thereby enhancing performance. We conduct extensive experiments on eight commonly used time series datasets. CondTSF consistently improves the performance of all previous dataset condensation methods across all datasets, particularly at low condensing ratios.
Claim
Dataset condensation is a newborn technique that generates a small dataset that can be used in training deep neural networks to lower training costs.
INDICT: Code Generation with Internal Dialogues of Critiques for Both Security and Helpfulness Paper
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) for code are typically trained to align with natural language instructions to closely follow their intentions and requirements. However, in many practical scenarios, it becomes increasingly challenging for these models to navigate the intricate boundary between helpfulness and safety, especially against highly complex yet potentially malicious instructions. In this work, we introduce INDICT: a new framework that empowers LLMs with Internal Dialogues of Critiques for both safety and helpfulness guidance. The internal dialogue is a dual cooperative system between a safety-driven critic and a helpfulness-driven critic. Each critic provides analysis against the given task and corresponding generated response, equipped with external knowledge queried through relevant code snippets and tools like web search and code interpreter. We engage the dual critic system in both code generation stage as well as code execution stage, providing preemptive and post-hoc guidance respectively to LLMs. We evaluated INDICT on 8 diverse tasks across 8 programming languages from 5 benchmarks, using LLMs from 7B to 70B parameters. We observed that our approach can provide an advanced level of critiques of both safety and helpfulness analysis, significantly improving the quality of output codes (\(+10\%\) absolute improvements in all models).
Claim
Large language models (LLMs) for code are typically trained to align with natural language instructions to closely follow their intentions and requirements.
ACES: Generating a Diversity of Challenging Programming Puzzles with Autotelic Generative Models Paper
Abstract
Not stated in metadata.
Claim
Not stated in abstract.
Automated Efficient Estimation using Monte Carlo Efficient Influence Functions Paper
Abstract
Many practical problems involve estimating low dimensional statistical quantities with high-dimensional models and datasets. Several approaches address these estimation tasks based on the theory of influence functions, such as debiased/double ML or targeted minimum loss estimation. This paper introduces \textit{Monte Carlo Efficient Influence Functions} (MC-EIF), a fully automated technique for approximating efficient influence functions that integrates seamlessly with existing differentiable probabilistic programming systems. MC-EIF automates efficient statistical estimation for a broad class of models and target functionals that would previously require rigorous custom analysis. We prove that MC-EIF is consistent, and that estimators using MC-EIF achieve optimal \(\sqrt{N}\) convergence rates. We show empirically that estimators using MC-EIF are at parity with estimators using analytic EIFs. Finally, we demonstrate a novel capstone example using MC-EIF for optimal portfolio selection.
Claim
Many practical problems involve estimating low dimensional statistical quantities with high-dimensional models and datasets.
Robust Conformal Prediction Using Privileged Information Paper
Abstract
We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to construct prediction sets that are valid under the i.i.d assumption. Importantly, naively applying conformal prediction does not provide reliable predictions in this setting, due to the distribution shift induced by the corruptions. To account for the distribution shift, we assume access to privileged information (PI). The PI is formulated as additional features that explain the distribution shift, however, they are only available during training and absent at test time. We approach this problem by introducing a novel generalization of weighted conformal prediction and support our method with theoretical coverage guarantees. Empirical experiments on both real and synthetic datasets indicate that our approach achieves a valid coverage rate and constructs more informative predictions compared to existing methods, which are not supported by theoretical guarantees.
Claim
We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables.
Benchmarking Generative Models on Computational Thinking Tests in Elementary Visual Programming Paper
Abstract
Generative models have demonstrated human-level proficiency in various benchmarks across domains like programming, natural sciences, and general knowledge. Despite these promising results on competitive benchmarks, they still struggle with seemingly simple problem-solving tasks typically carried out by elementary-level students. How do state-of-the-art models perform on standardized programming-related tests designed to assess computational thinking and problem-solving skills at schools? In this paper, we curate a novel benchmark involving computational thinking tests grounded in elementary visual programming domains. Our initial results show that state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o and Llama3 barely match the performance of an average school student. To further boost the performance of these models, we fine-tune them using a novel synthetic data generation methodology. The key idea is to develop a comprehensive dataset using symbolic methods that capture different skill levels, ranging from recognition of visual elements to multi-choice quizzes to synthesis-style tasks. We showcase how various aspects of symbolic information in synthetic data help improve fine-tuned models' performance. We will release the full implementation and datasets to facilitate further research on enhancing computational thinking in generative models.
Claim
Generative models have demonstrated human-level proficiency in various benchmarks across domains like programming, natural sciences, and general knowledge.
GLinSAT: The General Linear Satisfiability Neural Network Layer By Accelerated Gradient Descent Paper
Abstract
Ensuring that the outputs of neural networks satisfy specific constraints is crucial for applying neural networks to real-life decision-making problems. In this paper, we consider making a batch of neural network outputs satisfy bounded and general linear constraints. We first reformulate the neural network output projection problem as an entropy-regularized linear programming problem. We show that such a problem can be equivalently transformed into an unconstrained convex optimization problem with Lipschitz continuous gradient according to the duality theorem. Then, based on an accelerated gradient descent algorithm with numerical performance enhancement, we present our architecture, GLinSAT, to solve the problem. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first general linear satisfiability layer in which all the operations are differentiable and matrix-factorization-free. Despite the fact that we can explicitly perform backpropagation based on automatic differentiation mechanism, we also provide an alternative approach in GLinSAT to calculate the derivatives based on implicit differentiation of the optimality condition. Experimental results on constrained traveling salesman problems, partial graph matching with outliers, predictive portfolio allocation and power system unit commitment demonstrate the advantages of GLinSAT over existing satisfiability layers. Our implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/HunterTracer/GLinSAT}.
Claim
Ensuring that the outputs of neural networks satisfy specific constraints is crucial for applying neural networks to real-life decision-making problems.
Aligning Audio-Visual Joint Representations with an Agentic Workflow Paper
Abstract
Visual content and accompanied audio signals naturally formulate a joint representation to improve audio-visual (AV) related applications. While studies develop various AV representation learning frameworks, the importance of AV data alignment is usually undermined for achieving high-quality representation. We observe that an audio signal may contain background noise interference. Also, non-synchronization may appear between audio and video streams. These non-strict data alignment limits representation quality and downgrade application performance. In this paper, we propose to improve AV joint representations from a data-centric perspective by aligning audio signals to visual data. Our alignment is conducted in an agentic workflow controlled by an LLM-based assistant named AVAgent. For each input AV data pair, our AVAgent uses a multi-modal LLM to convert audio and visual data into language descriptions separately (i.e., tool use). Then, AVAgent reasons whether this paired data is aligned well and plans to edit the audio signal if needed (i.e., planning). The audio editing is executed by predefined actions that filter noise or augment data. Moreover, we use a VLM to evaluate how modified audio signals match the visual content and provide feedback to AVAgent (i.e., reflection). The tool use, planning, and reflection steps operate cyclically to become an agentic workflow where audio signals are gradually aligned to visual content. To this end, existing methods can directly leverage the aligned AV data via our agentic workflow to improve AV joint representations. The experimental results comprehensively demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of the proposed approach against previous baselines in diverse downstream tasks.
Claim
Visual content and accompanied audio signals naturally formulate a joint representation to improve audio-visual (AV) related applications.
Optimal Aggregation of Prediction Intervals under Unsupervised Domain Shift Paper
Abstract
As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating process changes, leading to a deviation in the model's performance. The prediction interval, which captures the range of likely outcomes for a given prediction, serves as a crucial tool for characterizing uncertainties induced by their underlying distribution. In this paper, we propose methodologies for aggregating prediction intervals to obtain one with minimal width and adequate coverage on the target domain under unsupervised domain shift, under which we have labeled samples from a related source domain and unlabeled covariates from the target domain. Our analysis encompasses scenarios where the source and the target domain are related via i) a bounded density ratio, and ii) a measure-preserving transformation. Our proposed methodologies are computationally efficient and easy to implement. Beyond illustrating the performance of our method through real-world datasets, we also delve into the theoretical details. This includes establishing rigorous theoretical guarantees, coupled with finite sample bounds, regarding the coverage and width of our prediction intervals. Our approach excels in practical applications and is underpinned by a solid theoretical framework, ensuring its reliability and effectiveness across diverse contexts.
Claim
As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts.
Targeted Sequential Indirect Experiment Design Paper
Abstract
Scientific hypotheses typically concern specific aspects of complex, imperfectly understood or entirely unknown mechanisms, such as the effect of gene expression levels on phenotypes or how microbial communities influence environmental health. Such queries are inherently causal (rather than purely associational), but in many settings, experiments can not be conducted directly on the target variables of interest, but are indirect. Therefore, they perturb the target variable, but do not remove potential confounding factors. If, additionally, the resulting experimental measurements are multi-dimensional and the studied mechanisms nonlinear, the query of interest is generally not identified. We develop an adaptive strategy to design indirect experiments that optimally inform a targeted query about the ground truth mechanism in terms of sequentially narrowing the gap between an upper and lower bound on the query. While the general formulation consists of a bi-level optimization procedure, we derive an efficiently estimable analytical kernel-based estimator of the bounds for the causal effect, a query of key interest, and demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in confounded, multivariate, nonlinear synthetic settings.
Claim
Scientific hypotheses typically concern specific aspects of complex, imperfectly understood or entirely unknown mechanisms, such as the effect of gene expression levels on phenotypes or how microbial communities influence environmental health.
On Differentially Private Subspace Estimation in a Distribution-Free Setting Paper
Abstract
Private data analysis faces a significant challenge known as the curse of dimensionality, leading to increased costs. However, many datasets possess an inherent low-dimensional structure. For instance, during optimization via gradient descent, the gradients frequently reside near a low-dimensional subspace. If the low-dimensional structure could be privately identified using a small amount of points, we could avoid paying for the high ambient dimension. On the negative side, Dwork, Talwar, Thakurta, and Zhang (STOC 2014) proved that privately estimating subspaces, in general, requires an amount of points that has a polynomial dependency on the dimension. However, their bounds do not rule out the possibility to reduce the number of points for"easy"instances. Yet, providing a measure that captures how much a given dataset is"easy"for this task turns out to be challenging, and was not properly addressed in prior works. Inspired by the work of Singhal and Steinke (NeurIPS 2021), we provide the first measures that quantify"easiness"as a function of multiplicative singular-value gaps in the input dataset, and support them with new upper and lower bounds. In particular, our results determine the first types of gaps that are sufficient and necessary for estimating a subspace with an amount of points that is independent of the dimension. Furthermore, we realize our upper bounds using a practical algorithm and demonstrate its advantage in high-dimensional regimes compared to prior approaches.
Claim
Private data analysis faces a significant challenge known as the curse of dimensionality, leading to increased costs.
Training Binary Neural Networks via Gaussian Variational Inference and Low-Rank Semidefinite Programming Paper
Abstract
Improving the training of Binarized Neural Networks (BNNs) is a longstanding challenge whose outcome can significantly affect our ability to deploy deep learning ubiquitously. Current methods heavily rely on latent weights and the heuristic straight-through estimator (STE), which enable the application of SGD-based optimizers to the combinatorial training problem, but remain theoretically poorly understood. In this paper, we propose an optimization framework for BNN training based on Gaussian variational inference. Our approach yields a non-convex linear programming formulation that theoretically motivates the use of latent weights, STE and weight clipping . More importantly, it allows us to go beyond latent weights to formulate and solve low-rank semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations that explicitly model and learn pairwise correlations between weights during training , resulting in improved accuracy. Our empirical evaluation on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet and ImageNet datasets shows our method consistently outperforms all state-of-the-art algorithms for training BNNs.
Claim
Improving the training of Binarized Neural Networks (BNNs) is a longstanding challenge whose outcome can significantly affect our ability to deploy deep learning ubiquitously.
Multidimensional Fractional Programming for Normalized Cuts Paper
Abstract
The Normalized cut (NCut) problem is a fundamental and yet notoriously difficult one in the unsupervised clustering field. Because the NCut problem is fractionally structured, the fractional programming (FP) based approach has worked its way into a new frontier. However, the conventional FP techniques are insufficient: the classic Dinkelbach’s transform can only deal with a single ratio and hence is limited to the two-class clustering, while the state-of-the-art quadratic transform accounts for multiple ratios but fails to convert the NCut problem to a tractable form. This work advocates a novel extension of the quadratic transform to the multidimensional ratio case, thereby recasting the fractional 0-1 NCut problem into a bipartite matching problem—which can be readily solved in an iterative manner. Furthermore, we explore the connection between the proposed multidimensional FP method and the minorization-maximization theory to verify the convergence.
Claim
The Normalized cut (NCut) problem is a fundamental and yet notoriously difficult one in the unsupervised clustering field.
Fast Proxy Experiment Design for Causal Effect Identification Paper
Abstract
Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from unmeasured confounding, which may render the causal effects unidentifiable. On the other hand, direct experiments on the target variable may be too costly or even infeasible to conduct. A middle ground between these two approaches is to estimate the causal effect of interest through proxy experiments, which are conducted on variables with a lower cost to intervene on compared to the main target. Akbari et al. [2022] studied this setting and demonstrated that the problem of designing the optimal (minimum-cost) experiment for causal effect identification is NP-complete and provided a naive algorithm that may require solving exponentially many NP-hard problems as a sub-routine in the worst case. In this work, we provide a few reformulations of the problem that allow for designing significantly more efficient algorithms to solve it as witnessed by our extensive simulations. Additionally, we study the closely-related problem of designing experiments that enable us to identify a given effect through valid adjustments sets.
Claim
Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines.
Face2QR: A Unified Framework for Aesthetic, Face-Preserving, and Scannable QR Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Existing methods to generate aesthetic QR codes, such as image and style transfer techniques, tend to compromise either the visual appeal or the scannability of QR codes when they incorporate human face identity. Addressing these imperfections, we present Face2QR-a novel pipeline specifically designed for generating personalized QR codes that harmoniously blend aesthetics, face identity, and scannability. Our pipeline introduces three innovative components. First, the ID-refined QR integration (IDQR) seamlessly intertwines the background styling with face ID, utilizing a unified Stable Diffusion (SD)-based framework with control networks. Second, the ID-aware QR ReShuffle (IDRS) effectively rectifies the conflicts between face IDs and QR patterns, rearranging QR modules to maintain the integrity of facial features without compromising scannability. Lastly, the ID-preserved Scannability Enhancement (IDSE) markedly boosts scanning robustness through latent code optimization, striking a delicate balance between face ID, aesthetic quality and QR functionality. In comprehensive experiments, Face2QR demonstrates remarkable performance, outperforming existing approaches, particularly in preserving facial recognition features within custom QR code designs. Codes are available at \(\href{https://github.com/cavosamir/Face2QR}{\text{this URL link}}\).
Claim
Existing methods to generate aesthetic QR codes, such as image and style transfer techniques, tend to compromise either the visual appeal or the scannability of QR codes when they incorporate human face identity.
Learning Generalized Linear Programming Value Functions Paper
Abstract
We develop a theoretically-grounded learning method for the Generalized Linear Programming Value Function (GVF), which models the optimal value of a linear programming (LP) problem as its objective and constraint bounds vary. This function plays a fundamental role in algorithmic techniques for large-scale optimization, particularly in decomposition for two-stage mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). This paper establishes a structural characterization of the GVF that enables it to be modeled as a particular neural network architecture, which we then use to learn the GVF in a way that benefits from three notable properties. First, our method produces a true under-approximation of the value function with respect to the constraint bounds. Second, the model is input-convex in the constraint bounds, which not only matches the structure of the GVF but also enables the trained model to be efficiently optimized over using LP. Finally, our learning method is unsupervised, meaning that training data generation does not require computing LP optimal values, which can be prohibitively expensive at large scales. We numerically show that our method can approximate the GVF well, even when compared to supervised methods that collect training data by solving an LP for each data point. Furthermore, as an application of our framework, we develop a fast heuristic method for large-scale two-stage MILPs with continuous second-stage variables, via a compact reformulation that can be solved faster than the full model linear relaxation at large scales and orders of magnitude faster than the original model.
Claim
We develop a theoretically-grounded learning method for the Generalized Linear Programming Value Function (GVF), which models the optimal value of a linear programming (LP) problem as its objective and constraint bounds vary.
Trading off Consistency and Dimensionality of Convex Surrogates for Multiclass Classification Paper
Abstract
Not stated in metadata.
Claim
Not stated in abstract.
International Conference on Machine Learning¶
2024¶
Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers Paper
Abstract
Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, data, and model weights can be found at https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/uni2ts.
Claim
Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models.
MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models Paper
Abstract
We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time series analysis. Pre-training large models on time series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time series repository, and (2) diverse time series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time series, called the Time series Pile, and systematically tackle time series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time series models. Pre-trained models (AutonLab/MOMENT-1-large) and Time Series Pile (AutonLab/Timeseries-PILE) are available on Huggingface.
Claim
We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time series analysis.
Executable Code Actions Elicit Better LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
Large Language Model (LLM) agents, capable of performing a broad range of actions, such as invoking tools and controlling robots, show great potential in tackling real-world challenges. LLM agents are typically prompted to produce actions by generating JSON or text in a pre-defined format, which is usually limited by constrained action space (e.g., the scope of pre-defined tools) and restricted flexibility (e.g., inability to compose multiple tools). This work proposes to use executable Python code to consolidate LLM agents' actions into a unified action space (CodeAct). Integrated with a Python interpreter, CodeAct can execute code actions and dynamically revise prior actions or emit new actions upon new observations through multi-turn interactions. Our extensive analysis of 17 LLMs on API-Bank and a newly curated benchmark shows that CodeAct outperforms widely used alternatives (up to 20% higher success rate). The encouraging performance of CodeAct motivates us to build an open-source LLM agent that interacts with environments by executing interpretable code and collaborates with users using natural language. To this end, we collect an instruction-tuning dataset CodeActInstruct that consists of 7k multi-turn interactions using CodeAct. We show that it can be used with existing data to improve models in agent-oriented tasks without compromising their general capability. CodeActAgent, finetuned from Llama2 and Mistral, is integrated with Python interpreter and uniquely tailored to perform sophisticated tasks (e.g., model training) using existing libraries and autonomously self-debug.
Claim
Large Language Model (LLM) agents, capable of performing a broad range of actions, such as invoking tools and controlling robots, show great potential in tackling real-world challenges.
TravelPlanner: A Benchmark for Real-World Planning with Language Agents Paper
Abstract
Planning has been part of the core pursuit for artificial intelligence since its conception, but earlier AI agents mostly focused on constrained settings because many of the cognitive substrates necessary for human-level planning have been lacking. Recently, language agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have shown interesting capabilities such as tool use and reasoning. Are these language agents capable of planning in more complex settings that are out of the reach of prior AI agents? To advance this investigation, we propose TravelPlanner, a new planning benchmark that focuses on travel planning, a common real-world planning scenario. It provides a rich sandbox environment, various tools for accessing nearly four million data records, and 1,225 meticulously curated planning intents and reference plans. Comprehensive evaluations show that the current language agents are not yet capable of handling such complex planning tasks-even GPT-4 only achieves a success rate of 0.6%. Language agents struggle to stay on task, use the right tools to collect information, or keep track of multiple constraints. However, we note that the mere possibility for language agents to tackle such a complex problem is in itself non-trivial progress. TravelPlanner provides a challenging yet meaningful testbed for future language agents.
Claim
Planning has been part of the core pursuit for artificial intelligence since its conception, but earlier AI agents mostly focused on constrained settings because many of the cognitive substrates necessary for human-level planning have been lacking.
Training Software Engineering Agents and Verifiers with SWE-Gym Paper
Abstract
We present SWE-Gym, the first environment for training real-world software engineering (SWE) agents. SWE-Gym contains 2,438 real-world Python task instances, each comprising a codebase with an executable runtime environment, unit tests, and a task specified in natural language. We use SWE-Gym to train language model based SWE agents, achieving up to 19% absolute gains in resolve rate on the popular SWE-Bench Verified and Lite test sets. We also experiment with inference-time scaling through verifiers trained on agent trajectories sampled from SWE-Gym. When combined with our fine-tuned SWE agents, we achieve 32.0% and 26.0% on SWE-Bench Verified and Lite, respectively, reflecting a new state-of-the-art for open-weight SWE agents. To facilitate further research, we publicly release SWE-Gym, models, and agent trajectories.
Claim
We present SWE-Gym, the first environment for training real-world software engineering (SWE) agents.
SparseTSF: Modeling Long-term Time Series Forecasting with 1k Parameters Paper
Abstract
This paper introduces SparseTSF, a novel, extremely lightweight model for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), designed to address the challenges of modeling complex temporal dependencies over extended horizons with minimal computational resources. At the heart of SparseTSF lies the Cross-Period Sparse Forecasting technique, which simplifies the forecasting task by decoupling the periodicity and trend in time series data. This technique involves downsampling the original sequences to focus on cross-period trend prediction, effectively extracting periodic features while minimizing the model's complexity and parameter count. Based on this technique, the SparseTSF model uses fewer than 1k parameters to achieve competitive or superior performance compared to state-of-the-art models. Furthermore, SparseTSF showcases remarkable generalization capabilities, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited computational resources, small samples, or low-quality data. The code is publicly available at this repository: https://github.com/lss-1138/SparseTSF.
Claim
This paper introduces SparseTSF, a novel, extremely lightweight model for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), designed to address the challenges of modeling complex temporal dependencies over extended horizons with minimal computational resources.
Agent-as-a-Judge: Evaluate Agents with Agents Paper
Abstract
Contemporary evaluation techniques are inadequate for agentic systems. These approaches either focus exclusively on final outcomes -- ignoring the step-by-step nature of agentic systems, or require excessive manual labour. To address this, we introduce the Agent-as-a-Judge framework, wherein agentic systems are used to evaluate agentic systems. This is an organic extension of the LLM-as-a-Judge framework, incorporating agentic features that enable intermediate feedback for the entire task-solving process. We apply the Agent-as-a-Judge to the task of code generation. To overcome issues with existing benchmarks and provide a proof-of-concept testbed for Agent-as-a-Judge, we present DevAI, a new benchmark of 55 realistic automated AI development tasks. It includes rich manual annotations, like a total of 365 hierarchical user requirements. We benchmark three of the popular agentic systems using Agent-as-a-Judge and find it dramatically outperforms LLM-as-a-Judge and is as reliable as our human evaluation baseline. Altogether, we believe that Agent-as-a-Judge marks a concrete step forward for modern agentic systems -- by providing rich and reliable reward signals necessary for dynamic and scalable self-improvement.
Claim
Contemporary evaluation techniques are inadequate for agentic systems.
Agent Smith: A Single Image Can Jailbreak One Million Multimodal LLM Agents Exponentially Fast Paper
Abstract
A multimodal large language model (MLLM) agent can receive instructions, capture images, retrieve histories from memory, and decide which tools to use. Nonetheless, red-teaming efforts have revealed that adversarial images/prompts can jailbreak an MLLM and cause unaligned behaviors. In this work, we report an even more severe safety issue in multi-agent environments, referred to as infectious jailbreak. It entails the adversary simply jailbreaking a single agent, and without any further intervention from the adversary, (almost) all agents will become infected exponentially fast and exhibit harmful behaviors. To validate the feasibility of infectious jailbreak, we simulate multi-agent environments containing up to one million LLaVA-1.5 agents, and employ randomized pair-wise chat as a proof-of-concept instantiation for multi-agent interaction. Our results show that feeding an (infectious) adversarial image into the memory of any randomly chosen agent is sufficient to achieve infectious jailbreak. Finally, we derive a simple principle for determining whether a defense mechanism can provably restrain the spread of infectious jailbreak, but how to design a practical defense that meets this principle remains an open question to investigate. Our project page is available at https://sail-sg.github.io/Agent-Smith/.
Claim
A multimodal large language model (MLLM) agent can receive instructions, capture images, retrieve histories from memory, and decide which tools to use.
DS-Agent: Automated Data Science by Empowering Large Language Models with Case-Based Reasoning Paper
Abstract
In this work, we investigate the potential of large language models (LLMs) based agents to automate data science tasks, with the goal of comprehending task requirements, then building and training the best-fit machine learning models. Despite their widespread success, existing LLM agents are hindered by generating unreasonable experiment plans within this scenario. To this end, we present DS-Agent, a novel automatic framework that harnesses LLM agent and case-based reasoning (CBR). In the development stage, DS-Agent follows the CBR framework to structure an automatic iteration pipeline, which can flexibly capitalize on the expert knowledge from Kaggle, and facilitate consistent performance improvement through the feedback mechanism. Moreover, DS-Agent implements a low-resource deployment stage with a simplified CBR paradigm to adapt past successful solutions from the development stage for direct code generation, significantly reducing the demand on foundational capabilities of LLMs. Empirically, DS-Agent with GPT-4 achieves 100\% success rate in the development stage, while attaining 36\% improvement on average one pass rate across alternative LLMs in the deployment stage. In both stages, DS-Agent achieves the best rank in performance, costing $1.60 and $0.13 per run with GPT-4, respectively. Our data and code are open-sourced at https://github.com/guosyjlu/DS-Agent.
Claim
In this work, we investigate the potential of large language models (LLMs) based agents to automate data science tasks, with the goal of comprehending task requirements, then building and training the best-fit machine learning models.
SceneCraft: An LLM Agent for Synthesizing 3D Scene as Blender Code Paper
Abstract
This paper introduces SceneCraft, a Large Language Model (LLM) Agent converting text descriptions into Blender-executable Python scripts which render complex scenes with up to a hundred 3D assets. This process requires complex spatial planning and arrangement. We tackle these challenges through a combination of advanced abstraction, strategic planning, and library learning. SceneCraft first models a scene graph as a blueprint, detailing the spatial relationships among assets in the scene. SceneCraft then writes Python scripts based on this graph, translating relationships into numerical constraints for asset layout. Next, SceneCraft leverages the perceptual strengths of vision-language foundation models like GPT-V to analyze rendered images and iteratively refine the scene. On top of this process, SceneCraft features a library learning mechanism that compiles common script functions into a reusable library, facilitating continuous self-improvement without expensive LLM parameter tuning. Our evaluation demonstrates that SceneCraft surpasses existing LLM-based agents in rendering complex scenes, as shown by its adherence to constraints and favorable human assessments. We also showcase the broader application potential of SceneCraft by reconstructing detailed 3D scenes from the Sintel movie and guiding a video generative model with generated scenes as intermediary control signal.
Claim
This paper introduces SceneCraft, a Large Language Model (LLM) Agent converting text descriptions into Blender-executable Python scripts which render complex scenes with up to a hundred 3D assets.
How Well Can LLMs Negotiate? NegotiationArena Platform and Analysis Paper
Abstract
Negotiation is the basis of social interactions; humans negotiate everything from the price of cars to how to share common resources. With rapidly growing interest in using large language models (LLMs) to act as agents on behalf of human users, such LLM agents would also need to be able to negotiate. In this paper, we study how well LLMs can negotiate with each other. We develop NegotiationArena: a flexible framework for evaluating and probing the negotiation abilities of LLM agents. We implemented three types of scenarios in NegotiationArena to assess LLM's behaviors in allocating shared resources (ultimatum games), aggregate resources (trading games) and buy/sell goods (price negotiations). Each scenario allows for multiple turns of flexible dialogues between LLM agents to allow for more complex negotiations. Interestingly, LLM agents can significantly boost their negotiation outcomes by employing certain behavioral tactics. For example, by pretending to be desolate and desperate, LLMs can improve their payoffs by 20\% when negotiating against the standard GPT-4. We also quantify irrational negotiation behaviors exhibited by the LLM agents, many of which also appear in humans. Together, \NegotiationArena offers a new environment to investigate LLM interactions, enabling new insights into LLM's theory of mind, irrationality, and reasoning abilities.
Claim
Negotiation is the basis of social interactions; humans negotiate everything from the price of cars to how to share common resources.
Revitalizing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Learnable Decomposition with Inter-Series Dependencies and Intra-Series Variations Modeling Paper
Abstract
Predicting multivariate time series is crucial, demanding precise modeling of intricate patterns, including inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations. Distinctive trend characteristics in each time series pose challenges, and existing methods, relying on basic moving average kernels, may struggle with the non-linear structure and complex trends in real-world data. Given that, we introduce a learnable decomposition strategy to capture dynamic trend information more reasonably. Additionally, we propose a dual attention module tailored to capture inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations simultaneously for better time series forecasting, which is implemented by channel-wise self-attention and autoregressive self-attention. To evaluate the effectiveness of our method, we conducted experiments across eight open-source datasets and compared it with the state-of-the-art methods. Through the comparison results, our Leddam (LEarnable Decomposition and Dual Attention Module) not only demonstrates significant advancements in predictive performance, but also the proposed decomposition strategy can be plugged into other methods with a large performance-boosting, from 11.87% to 48.56% MSE error degradation.
Claim
Predicting multivariate time series is crucial, demanding precise modeling of intricate patterns, including inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations.
AutoML-Agent: A Multi-Agent LLM Framework for Full-Pipeline AutoML Paper
Abstract
Automated machine learning (AutoML) accelerates AI development by automating tasks in the development pipeline, such as optimal model search and hyperparameter tuning. Existing AutoML systems often require technical expertise to set up complex tools, which is in general time-consuming and requires a large amount of human effort. Therefore, recent works have started exploiting large language models (LLM) to lessen such burden and increase the usability of AutoML frameworks via a natural language interface, allowing non-expert users to build their data-driven solutions. These methods, however, are usually designed only for a particular process in the AI development pipeline and do not efficiently use the inherent capacity of the LLMs. This paper proposes AutoML-Agent, a novel multi-agent framework tailored for full-pipeline AutoML, i.e., from data retrieval to model deployment. AutoML-Agent takes user's task descriptions, facilitates collaboration between specialized LLM agents, and delivers deployment-ready models. Unlike existing work, instead of devising a single plan, we introduce a retrieval-augmented planning strategy to enhance exploration to search for more optimal plans. We also decompose each plan into sub-tasks (e.g., data preprocessing and neural network design) each of which is solved by a specialized agent we build via prompting executing in parallel, making the search process more efficient. Moreover, we propose a multi-stage verification to verify executed results and guide the code generation LLM in implementing successful solutions. Extensive experiments on seven downstream tasks using fourteen datasets show that AutoML-Agent achieves a higher success rate in automating the full AutoML process, yielding systems with good performance throughout the diverse domains.
Claim
Automated machine learning (AutoML) accelerates AI development by automating tasks in the development pipeline, such as optimal model search and hyperparameter tuning.
GuardAgent: Safeguard LLM Agents via Knowledge-Enabled Reasoning Paper
Abstract
The rapid advancement of large language model (LLM) agents has raised new concerns regarding their safety and security. In this paper, we propose GuardAgent, the first guardrail agent to protect target agents by dynamically checking whether their actions satisfy given safety guard requests. Specifically, GuardAgent first analyzes the safety guard requests to generate a task plan, and then maps this plan into guardrail code for execution. By performing the code execution, GuardAgent can deterministically follow the safety guard request and safeguard target agents. In both steps, an LLM is utilized as the reasoning component, supplemented by in-context demonstrations retrieved from a memory module storing experiences from previous tasks. In addition, we propose two novel benchmarks: EICU-AC benchmark to assess the access control for healthcare agents and Mind2Web-SC benchmark to evaluate the safety policies for web agents. We show that GuardAgent effectively moderates the violation actions for different types of agents on these two benchmarks with over 98% and 83% guardrail accuracies, respectively. Project page: https://guardagent.github.io/
Claim
The rapid advancement of large language model (LLM) agents has raised new concerns regarding their safety and security.
Instruction Tuning for Secure Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Modern language models (LMs) have gained widespread acceptance in everyday and professional contexts, particularly in programming. An essential procedure enabling this adoption is instruction tuning, which substantially enhances LMs' practical utility by training them to follow user instructions and human preferences. However, existing instruction tuning schemes overlook a crucial aspect: the security of generated code. As a result, even the state-of-the-art instruction-tuned LMs frequently produce unsafe code, posing significant security risks. In this work, we introduce SafeCoder to address this gap. SafeCoder performs security-centric fine-tuning using a diverse and high-quality dataset that we collected using an automated pipeline. We integrate the security fine-tuning with standard instruction tuning, to facilitate a joint optimization of both security and utility. Despite its simplicity, we show that SafeCoder is effective across a variety of popular LMs and datasets. It is able to drastically improve security (by about 30%), while preserving utility.
Claim
Modern language models (LMs) have gained widespread acceptance in everyday and professional contexts, particularly in programming.
SAMformer: Unlocking the Potential of Transformers in Time Series Forecasting with Sharpness-Aware Minimization and Channel-Wise Attention Paper
Abstract
Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this phenomenon, we start by studying a toy linear forecasting problem for which we show that transformers are incapable of converging to their true solution despite their high expressive power. We further identify the attention of transformers as being responsible for this low generalization capacity. Building upon this insight, we propose a shallow lightweight transformer model that successfully escapes bad local minima when optimized with sharpness-aware optimization. We empirically demonstrate that this result extends to all commonly used real-world multivariate time series datasets. In particular, SAMformer surpasses current state-of-the-art methods and is on par with the biggest foundation model MOIRAI while having significantly fewer parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/romilbert/samformer.
Claim
Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting.
Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes Paper
Abstract
We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously estimate a population quantile when it exists. Our theory and experiments indicate substantially improved practical properties: in particular, when the distribution is stable, the coverage is close to the desired level for every time point, not just on average over the observed sequence.
Claim
We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes.
An Analysis of Linear Time Series Forecasting Models Paper
Abstract
Despite their simplicity, linear models perform well at time series forecasting, even when pitted against deeper and more expensive models. A number of variations to the linear model have been proposed, often including some form of feature normalisation that improves model generalisation. In this paper we analyse the sets of functions expressible using these linear model architectures. In so doing we show that several popular variants of linear models for time series forecasting are equivalent and functionally indistinguishable from standard, unconstrained linear regression. We characterise the model classes for each linear variant. We demonstrate that each model can be reinterpreted as unconstrained linear regression over a suitably augmented feature set, and therefore admit closed-form solutions when using a mean-squared loss function. We provide experimental evidence that the models under inspection learn nearly identical solutions, and finally demonstrate that the simpler closed form solutions are superior forecasters across 72% of test settings.
Claim
Despite their simplicity, linear models perform well at time series forecasting, even when pitted against deeper and more expensive models.
R2E: Turning any Github Repository into a Programming Agent Environment Paper
Abstract
Not stated in metadata.
Claim
Not stated in abstract.
Language Agents as Optimizable Graphs Paper
Abstract
Various human-designed prompt engineering techniques have been proposed to improve problem solvers based on Large Language Models (LLMs), yielding many disparate code bases. We unify these approaches by describing LLM-based agents as computational graphs. The nodes implement functions to process multimodal data or query LLMs, and the edges describe the information flow between operations. Graphs can be recursively combined into larger composite graphs representing hierarchies of inter-agent collaboration (where edges connect operations of different agents). Our novel automatic graph optimizers (1) refine node-level LLM prompts (node optimization) and (2) improve agent orchestration by changing graph connectivity (edge optimization). Experiments demonstrate that our framework can be used to efficiently develop, integrate, and automatically improve various LLM agents. The code can be found at https://github.com/metauto-ai/gptswarm.
Claim
Various human-designed prompt engineering techniques have been proposed to improve problem solvers based on Large Language Models (LLMs), yielding many disparate code bases.
RoboCodeX: Multimodal Code Generation for Robotic Behavior Synthesis Paper
Abstract
Robotic behavior synthesis, the problem of understanding multimodal inputs and generating precise physical control for robots, is an important part of Embodied AI. Despite successes in applying multimodal large language models for high-level understanding, it remains challenging to translate these conceptual understandings into detailed robotic actions while achieving generalization across various scenarios. In this paper, we propose a tree-structured multimodal code generation framework for generalized robotic behavior synthesis, termed RoboCodeX. RoboCodeX decomposes high-level human instructions into multiple object-centric manipulation units consisting of physical preferences such as affordance and safety constraints, and applies code generation to introduce generalization ability across various robotics platforms. To further enhance the capability to map conceptual and perceptual understanding into control commands, a specialized multimodal reasoning dataset is collected for pre-training and an iterative self-updating methodology is introduced for supervised fine-tuning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RoboCodeX achieves state-of-the-art performance in both simulators and real robots on four different kinds of manipulation tasks and one navigation task.
Claim
Robotic behavior synthesis, the problem of understanding multimodal inputs and generating precise physical control for robots, is an important part of Embodied AI.
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called \(\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}\) that builds prediction \(\textit{regions}\) for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate \(\textit{finite-sample}\) high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that \(\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}\) maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.
Claim
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound.
TimeBridge: Non-Stationarity Matters for Long-term Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most existing methods either eliminate or retain non-stationarity without adequately addressing its distinct impacts on short-term and long-term modeling. Eliminating non-stationarity is essential for avoiding spurious regressions and capturing local dependencies in short-term modeling, while preserving it is crucial for revealing long-term cointegration across variates. In this paper, we propose TimeBridge, a novel framework designed to bridge the gap between non-stationarity and dependency modeling in long-term time series forecasting. By segmenting input series into smaller patches, TimeBridge applies Integrated Attention to mitigate short-term non-stationarity and capture stable dependencies within each variate, while Cointegrated Attention preserves non-stationarity to model long-term cointegration across variates. Extensive experiments show that TimeBridge consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting. Additionally, TimeBridge demonstrates exceptional performance in financial forecasting on the CSI 500 and S&P 500 indices, further validating its robustness and effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/Hank0626/TimeBridge.
Claim
Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships.
AST-T5: Structure-Aware Pretraining for Code Generation and Understanding Paper
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) have made significant advancements in code-related tasks, yet many LLMs treat code as simple sequences, neglecting its structured nature. We introduce AST-T5, a novel pretraining paradigm that leverages the Abstract Syntax Tree (AST) for enhanced code generation, transpilation, and understanding. Using dynamic programming, our AST-Aware Segmentation retains code structure, while our AST-Aware Span Corruption objective equips the model to reconstruct various code structures. Unlike other models, AST-T5 avoids intricate program analyses or architectural changes, so it integrates seamlessly with any encoder-decoder Transformer. Evaluations show that AST-T5 consistently outperforms similar-sized LMs across various code-related tasks. Structure-awareness makes AST-T5 particularly powerful in code-to-code tasks, surpassing CodeT5 by 2 points in exact match score for the Bugs2Fix task and by 3 points in exact match score for Java-C# Transpilation in CodeXGLUE. Our code and model are publicly available at https://github.com/gonglinyuan/ast_t5.
Claim
Large language models (LLMs) have made significant advancements in code-related tasks, yet many LLMs treat code as simple sequences, neglecting its structured nature.
Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: A Transformable Patching Graph Neural Networks Approach Paper
Abstract
Not stated in metadata.
Claim
Not stated in abstract.
CATS: Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting by Constructing Auxiliary Time Series as Exogenous Variables Paper
Abstract
For Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF), recent deep learning applications show that univariate models frequently outperform multivariate ones. To address the difficiency in multivariate models, we introduce a method to Construct Auxiliary Time Series (CATS) that functions like a 2D temporal-contextual attention mechanism, which generates Auxiliary Time Series (ATS) from Original Time Series (OTS) to effectively represent and incorporate inter-series relationships for forecasting. Key principles of ATS - continuity, sparsity, and variability - are identified and implemented through different modules. Even with a basic 2-layer MLP as core predictor, CATS achieves state-of-the-art, significantly reducing complexity and parameters compared to previous multivariate models, marking it an efficient and transferable MTSF solution.
Claim
For Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF), recent deep learning applications show that univariate models frequently outperform multivariate ones.
Conformal Prediction Sets Improve Human Decision Making Paper
Abstract
In response to everyday queries, humans explicitly signal uncertainty and offer alternative answers when they are unsure. Machine learning models that output calibrated prediction sets through conformal prediction mimic this human behaviour; larger sets signal greater uncertainty while providing alternatives. In this work, we study the usefulness of conformal prediction sets as an aid for human decision making by conducting a pre-registered randomized controlled trial with conformal prediction sets provided to human subjects. With statistical significance, we find that when humans are given conformal prediction sets their accuracy on tasks improves compared to fixed-size prediction sets with the same coverage guarantee. The results show that quantifying model uncertainty with conformal prediction is helpful for human-in-the-loop decision making and human-AI teams.
Claim
In response to everyday queries, humans explicitly signal uncertainty and offer alternative answers when they are unsure.
Time-Series Forecasting for Out-of-Distribution Generalization Using Invariant Learning Paper
Abstract
Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial to equip TSF models with out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as historical training data and future test data can have different distributions. In this paper, we aim to alleviate the inherent OOD problem in TSF via invariant learning. We identify fundamental challenges of invariant learning for TSF. First, the target variables in TSF may not be sufficiently determined by the input due to unobserved core variables in TSF, breaking the conventional assumption of invariant learning. Second, time-series datasets lack adequate environment labels, while existing environmental inference methods are not suitable for TSF. To address these challenges, we propose FOIL, a model-agnostic framework that enables timeseries Forecasting for Out-of-distribution generalization via Invariant Learning. FOIL employs a novel surrogate loss to mitigate the impact of unobserved variables. Further, FOIL implements a joint optimization by alternately inferring environments effectively with a multi-head network while preserving the temporal adjacency structure, and learning invariant representations across inferred environments for OOD generalized TSF. We demonstrate that the proposed FOIL significantly improves the performance of various TSF models, achieving gains of up to 85%.
Claim
Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios.
Programming Every Example: Lifting Pre-training Data Quality like Experts at Scale Paper
Abstract
Large language model pre-training has traditionally relied on human experts to craft heuristics for improving the corpora quality, resulting in numerous rules developed to date. However, these rules lack the flexibility to address the unique characteristics of individual example effectively. Meanwhile, applying tailored rules to every example is impractical for human experts. In this paper, we demonstrate that even small language models, with as few as 0.3B parameters, can exhibit substantial data refining capabilities comparable to those of human experts. We introduce Programming Every Example (ProX), a novel framework that treats data refinement as a programming task, enabling models to refine corpora by generating and executing fine-grained operations, such as string normalization, for each individual example at scale. Experimental results show that models pre-trained on ProX-curated data outperform either original data or data filtered by other selection methods by more than 2% across various downstream benchmarks. Its effectiveness spans various model sizes and pre-training corpora, including C4, RedPajama-V2, FineWeb, FineWeb-Edu, and DCLM. Furthermore, ProX exhibits significant potential in domain-specific continual pre-training: without domain specific design, models trained on OpenWebMath refined by ProX outperform human-crafted rule-based methods, improving average accuracy by 7.6% over Mistral-7B, with 14.6% for Llama-2-7B and 20.3% for CodeLlama-7B, all within 10B tokens to be comparable to models like Llemma-7B trained on 200B tokens. Further analysis highlights that ProX significantly saves training FLOPs, offering a promising path for efficient LLM pre-training. We are open-sourcing ProX with>500B corpus, models, and sharing all training and implementation details for reproducible research and future innovation. Code: https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/ProX
Claim
Large language model pre-training has traditionally relied on human experts to craft heuristics for improving the corpora quality, resulting in numerous rules developed to date.
Towards a General Time Series Forecasting Model with Unified Representation and Adaptive Transfer Paper
Abstract
With the growing availability of multi-domain time series data, there is an increasing demand for general forecasting models pre-trained on multi-source datasets to support diverse downstream prediction scenarios. Existing time series foundation models primarily focus on scaling up pre-training datasets and model sizes to enhance generalization performance. In this paper, we take a different approach by addressing two critical aspects of general forecasting models: (1) how to derive unified representations from heterogeneous multi-domain time series data, and (2) how to effectively capture domain-specific features to enable adaptive transfer across various downstream scenarios. To address the first aspect, we propose Decomposed Frequency Learning as the pre-training task, which leverages frequency-based masking and reconstruction to decompose coupled semantic information in time series, resulting in unified representations across domains. For the second aspect, we introduce the Time Series Register, which captures domain-specific representations during pre-training and enhances adaptive transferability to downstream tasks. Our model achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance on seven real-world benchmarks, demonstrating remarkable few-shot and zero-shot capabilities.
Claim
With the growing availability of multi-domain time series data, there is an increasing demand for general forecasting models pre-trained on multi-source datasets to support diverse downstream prediction scenarios.
Efficient and Effective Time-Series Forecasting with Spiking Neural Networks Paper
Abstract
Spiking neural networks (SNNs), inspired by the spiking behavior of biological neurons, provide a unique pathway for capturing the intricacies of temporal data. However, applying SNNs to time-series forecasting is challenging due to difficulties in effective temporal alignment, complexities in encoding processes, and the absence of standardized guidelines for model selection. In this paper, we propose a framework for SNNs in time-series forecasting tasks, leveraging the efficiency of spiking neurons in processing temporal information. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed SNN-based approaches achieve comparable or superior results to traditional time-series forecasting methods on diverse benchmarks with much less energy consumption. Furthermore, we conduct detailed analysis experiments to assess the SNN's capacity to capture temporal dependencies within time-series data, offering valuable insights into its nuanced strengths and effectiveness in modeling the intricate dynamics of temporal data. Our study contributes to the expanding field of SNNs and offers a promising alternative for time-series forecasting tasks, presenting a pathway for the development of more biologically inspired and temporally aware forecasting models. Our code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/SeqSNN.
Claim
Spiking neural networks (SNNs), inspired by the spiking behavior of biological neurons, provide a unique pathway for capturing the intricacies of temporal data.
AlphaVerus: Bootstrapping Formally Verified Code Generation through Self-Improving Translation and Treefinement Paper
Abstract
Automated code generation with large language models has gained significant traction, but there remains no guarantee on the correctness of generated code. We aim to use formal verification to provide mathematical guarantees that the generated code is correct. However, generating formally verified code with LLMs is hindered by the scarcity of training data and the complexity of formal proofs. To tackle this challenge, we introduce AlphaVerus, a self-improving framework that bootstraps formally verified code generation by iteratively translating programs from a higher-resource language and leveraging feedback from a verifier. AlphaVerus operates in three phases: exploration of candidate translations, Treefinement -- a novel tree search algorithm for program refinement using verifier feedback, and filtering misaligned specifications and programs to prevent reward hacking. Through this iterative process, AlphaVerus enables a LLaMA-3.1-70B model to generate verified code without human intervention or model finetuning. AlphaVerus shows an ability to generate formally verified solutions for HumanEval and MBPP, laying the groundwork for truly trustworthy code-generation agents.
Claim
Automated code generation with large language models has gained significant traction, but there remains no guarantee on the correctness of generated code.
S2IP-LLM: Semantic Space Informed Prompt Learning with LLM for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (\(S^2\)IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, \(S^2\)IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed \(S^2\)IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.
Claim
Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications.
In-Context Fine-Tuning for Time-Series Foundation Models Paper
Abstract
Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for \(\textit{in-context fine-tuning}\) of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation model that can be prompted (at inference time) with multiple time-series examples, in order to forecast a target time-series into the future. Our foundation model is specifically trained to utilize examples from multiple related time-series in its context window (in addition to the history of the target time-series) to help it adapt to the specific distribution of the target domain at inference time. We show that such a foundation model that uses in-context examples at inference time can obtain much better performance on popular forecasting benchmarks compared to supervised deep learning methods, statistical models, as well as other time-series foundation models. Interestingly, our in-context fine-tuning approach even rivals the performance of a foundation model that is explicitly fine-tuned on the target domain.
Claim
Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for \(\textit{in-context fine-tuning}\) of a time-series foundation model.
Multi-Source Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift Paper
Abstract
Recent years have experienced increasing utilization of complex machine learning models across multiple sources of data to inform more generalizable decision-making. However, distribution shifts across data sources and privacy concerns related to sharing individual-level data, coupled with a lack of uncertainty quantification from machine learning predictions, make it challenging to achieve valid inferences in multi-source environments. In this paper, we consider the problem of obtaining distribution-free prediction intervals for a target population, leveraging multiple potentially biased data sources. We derive the efficient influence functions for the quantiles of unobserved outcomes in the target and source populations, and show that one can incorporate machine learning prediction algorithms in the estimation of nuisance functions while still achieving parametric rates of convergence to nominal coverage probabilities. Moreover, when conditional outcome invariance is violated, we propose a data-adaptive strategy to upweight informative data sources for efficiency gain and downweight non-informative data sources for bias reduction. We highlight the robustness and efficiency of our proposals for a variety of conformal scores and data-generating mechanisms via extensive synthetic experiments. Hospital length of stay prediction intervals for pediatric patients undergoing a high-risk cardiac surgical procedure between 2016–2022 in the U.S. illustrate the utility of our methodology.
Claim
Recent years have experienced increasing utilization of complex machine learning models across multiple sources of data to inform more generalizable decision-making.
Conformal Prediction with Learned Features Paper
Abstract
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying on some predefined uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through learning uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage and length in both classification and regression scenarios.
Claim
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees.
PDHG-Unrolled Learning-to-Optimize Method for Large-Scale Linear Programming Paper
Abstract
Solving large-scale linear programming (LP) problems is an important task in various areas such as communication networks, power systems, finance and logistics. Recently, two distinct approaches have emerged to expedite LP solving: (i) First-order methods (FOMs); (ii) Learning to optimize (L2O). In this work, we propose an FOM-unrolled neural network (NN) called PDHG-Net, and propose a two-stage L2O method to solve large-scale LP problems. The new architecture PDHG-Net is designed by unrolling the recently emerged PDHG method into a neural network, combined with channel-expansion techniques borrowed from graph neural networks. We prove that the proposed PDHG-Net can recover PDHG algorithm, thus can approximate optimal solutions of LP instances with a polynomial number of neurons. We propose a two-stage inference approach: first use PDHG-Net to generate an approximate solution, and then apply PDHG algorithm to further improve the solution. Experiments show that our approach can significantly accelerate LP solving, achieving up to a 3\(\times\) speedup compared to FOMs for large-scale LP problems.
Claim
Solving large-scale linear programming (LP) problems is an important task in various areas such as communication networks, power systems, finance and logistics.
Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples (evasion) and perturbed calibration data (poisoning). We derive provably robust sets by bounding the worst-case change in conformity scores. Our tighter bounds lead to more efficient sets. We cover both continuous and discrete (sparse) data and our guarantees work both for evasion and poisoning attacks (on both features and labels).
Claim
Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability.
Reason for Future, Act for Now: A Principled Architecture for Autonomous LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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Do Large Code Models Understand Programming Concepts? Counterfactual Analysis for Code Predicates Paper
Abstract
Large Language Models' success on text generation has also made them better at code generation and coding tasks. While a lot of work has demonstrated their remarkable performance on tasks such as code completion and editing, it is still unclear as to why. We help bridge this gap by exploring to what degree auto-regressive models understand the logical constructs of the underlying programs. We propose Counterfactual Analysis for Programming Concept Predicates (CACP) as a counterfactual testing framework to evaluate whether Large Code Models understand programming concepts. With only black-box access to the model, we use CACP to evaluate ten popular Large Code Models for four different programming concepts. Our findings suggest that current models lack understanding of concepts such as data flow and control flow.
Claim
Large Language Models' success on text generation has also made them better at code generation and coding tasks.
Not all distributional shifts are equal: Fine-grained robust conformal inference Paper
Abstract
We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the outcome (\(Y\)) and the covariates (\(X\)). We propose to reweight the training samples to adjust for an identifiable covariate shift while protecting against worst-case conditional distribution shift bounded in an \(f\)-divergence ball. Based on ideas from conformal inference and distributionally robust learning, we present an algorithm that outputs (approximately) valid and efficient prediction intervals in the presence of distributional shifts. As a use case, we apply the framework to sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects with hidden confounding. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and four real data applications, demonstrating superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing benchmarks.
Claim
We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts.
Selective Prompt Anchoring for Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have transformed software development by automatically generating code from natural language. Yet challenges remain in generating fully correct code that aligns with user intent. Our study reveals that LLMs tend to pay less attention to user prompts as more code tokens are generated. We hypothesize that this attention dilution issue is an important reason for code generation errors. To mitigate this issue, we propose Selective Prompt Anchoring (SPA) to guide code LLMs to pay more attention to user intent when generating code. We evaluate SPA using six base LLMs across six benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that SPA enhances Pass@1 by up to 12.9%, consistently outperforming SOTA code generation methods in all settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/magic-YuanTian/Selective-Prompt-Anchoring.
Claim
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have transformed software development by automatically generating code from natural language.
EffiCoder: Enhancing Code Generation in Large Language Models through Efficiency-Aware Fine-tuning Paper
Abstract
As large language models (LLMs) play an increasingly important role in code generation, enhancing both correctness and efficiency has become crucial. Current methods primarily focus on correctness, often overlooking efficiency. To address this gap, we introduce EffiCoder to improve both aspects by fine-tuning LLMs on a high-quality dataset comprising correct and efficient code samples. Our methodology involves leveraging multiple LLMs to generate diverse candidate code solutions for various tasks across different programming languages. We then evaluate these solutions by measuring their execution time and memory usage through local execution. The code solution with the lowest execution time and memory consumption is selected as the final output for each task. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements when fine-tuning with Effi-Instruct. For instance, Qwen2.5-Coder-7B-Instruct's pass@1 score increases from 44.8\% to 57.7\%, while the average execution time for correct tasks decreases by 48.4\%. EffiCoder offers a scalable and effective solution for advancing AI-driven code generation, benefiting software development and computational problem-solving. The source code of Effi-Code was released at https://github.com/huangd1999/EffiCoder.
Claim
As large language models (LLMs) play an increasingly important role in code generation, enhancing both correctness and efficiency has become crucial.
SIN: Selective and Interpretable Normalization for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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Adaptive Conformal Inference by Betting Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider the problem of adaptive conformal inference without any assumptions about the data generating process. Existing approaches for adaptive conformal inference are based on optimizing the pinball loss using variants of online gradient descent. A notable shortcoming of such approaches is in their explicit dependence on and sensitivity to the choice of the learning rates. In this paper, we propose a different approach for adaptive conformal inference that leverages parameter-free online convex optimization techniques. We prove that our method controls long-term miscoverage frequency at a nominal level and demonstrate its convincing empirical performance without any need of performing cumbersome parameter tuning.
Claim
Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models.
Exploring Representations and Interventions in Time Series Foundation Models Paper
Abstract
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) promise to be powerful tools for a wide range of applications. However, their internal representations and learned concepts are still not well understood. In this study, we investigate the structure and redundancy of representations across various TSFMs, examining the self-similarity of model layers within and across different model sizes. This analysis reveals block-like redundancy in the representations, which can be utilized for informed pruning to improve inference speed and efficiency. Additionally, we explore the concepts learned by these models - such as periodicity and trends - and how these can be manipulated through latent space steering to influence model behavior. Our experiments show that steering interventions can introduce new features, e.g., adding periodicity or trends to signals that initially lacked them. These findings underscore the value of representational analysis for optimizing models and demonstrate how conceptual steering offers new possibilities for more controlled and efficient time series analysis with TSFMs.
Claim
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) promise to be powerful tools for a wide range of applications.
Reasoning Through Execution: Unifying Process and Outcome Rewards for Code Generation Paper
Abstract
Large Language Models excel at code generation yet struggle with complex programming tasks that demand sophisticated reasoning. To bridge this gap, traditional process supervision relies on learned reward models requiring costly training data and suffering from reward misalignment, while outcome supervision fails for complex tasks needing coordinated intermediate steps. We introduce Outcome Refining Process Supervision, which unifies process and outcome supervision by leveraging executable verification: a tree-structured search framework generates strategic alternatives, profiles execution metrics, and scores candidates via self-critique mechanisms that integrate runtime feedback with reasoning. Experiments across 5 models and 3 benchmarks show consistent gains, with 26.9% higher correctness and 42.2% improved code efficiency. The results demonstrate that ORPS enables LLMs to overcome local optima in code generation, suggesting a promising direction for combining verifiable outcomes with structured reasoning to tackle complex challenges. We open-source at: https://github.com/zhuohaoyu/ORPS
Claim
Large Language Models excel at code generation yet struggle with complex programming tasks that demand sophisticated reasoning.
On Temperature Scaling and Conformal Prediction of Deep Classifiers Paper
Abstract
In many classification applications, the prediction of a deep neural network (DNN) based classifier needs to be accompanied by some confidence indication. Two popular approaches for that aim are: 1) Calibration: modifies the classifier's softmax values such that the maximal value better estimates the correctness probability; and 2) Conformal Prediction (CP): produces a prediction set of candidate labels that contains the true label with a user-specified probability, guaranteeing marginal coverage but not, e.g., per class coverage. In practice, both types of indications are desirable, yet, so far the interplay between them has not been investigated. Focusing on the ubiquitous Temperature Scaling (TS) calibration, we start this paper with an extensive empirical study of its effect on prominent CP methods. We show that while TS calibration improves the class-conditional coverage of adaptive CP methods, surprisingly, it negatively affects their prediction set sizes. Motivated by this behavior, we explore the effect of TS on CP beyond its calibration application and reveal an intriguing trend under which it allows to trade prediction set size and conditional coverage of adaptive CP methods. Then, we establish a mathematical theory that explains the entire non-monotonic trend. Finally, based on our experiments and theory, we offer simple guidelines for practitioners to effectively combine adaptive CP with calibration, aligned with user-defined goals.
Claim
In many classification applications, the prediction of a deep neural network (DNN) based classifier needs to be accompanied by some confidence indication.
Prune 'n Predict: Optimizing LLM Decision-making with Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like healthcare and finance. To quantify LLM uncertainty and thereby mitigate these risks, recent works employ conformal prediction (CP), a model- and distribution-agnostic framework that uses LLM outputs to generate a \emph{prediction set} containing the true answer with high probability. Leveraging CP, we propose \emph{conformal revision of questions} (CROQ), which revises the question by narrowing down the available choices to those in the prediction set and asking the LLM the revised question. We expect LLMs to be more accurate on revised questions with fewer choices. Furthermore, we expect CROQ to be effective when the prediction sets from CP are small. Commonly used logit scores often lead to large sets, diminishing CROQ's effectiveness. To overcome this, we propose CP-OPT, an optimization framework to learn scores that minimize set sizes while maintaining coverage. Our extensive experiments on MMLU, ToolAlpaca, and TruthfulQA datasets with multiple LLMs show that CROQ improves accuracy over the standard inference, with more pronounced gains when paired with CP-OPT.
Claim
Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs).
Creative Text-to-Audio Generation via Synthesizer Programming Paper
Abstract
Neural audio synthesis methods now allow specifying ideas in natural language. However, these methods produce results that cannot be easily tweaked, as they are based on large latent spaces and up to billions of uninterpretable parameters. We propose a text-to-audio generation method that leverages a virtual modular sound synthesizer with only 78 parameters. Synthesizers have long been used by skilled sound designers for media like music and film due to their flexibility and intuitive controls. Our method, CTAG, iteratively updates a synthesizer's parameters to produce high-quality audio renderings of text prompts that can be easily inspected and tweaked. Sounds produced this way are also more abstract, capturing essential conceptual features over fine-grained acoustic details, akin to how simple sketches can vividly convey visual concepts. Our results show how CTAG produces sounds that are distinctive, perceived as artistic, and yet similarly identifiable to recent neural audio synthesis models, positioning it as a valuable and complementary tool.
Claim
Neural audio synthesis methods now allow specifying ideas in natural language.
Certifiably Byzantine-Robust Federated Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction has shown impressive capacity in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for machine learning models with exchangeable data samples. The siloed datasets, coupled with the escalating privacy concerns related to local data sharing, have inspired recent innovations extending conformal prediction into federated environments with distributed data samples. However, this framework for distributed uncertainty quantification is susceptible to Byzantine failures. A minor subset of malicious clients can significantly compromise the practicality of coverage guarantees. To address this vulnerability, we introduce a novel framework Rob-FCP, which executes robust federated conformal prediction, effectively countering malicious clients capable of reporting arbitrary statistics with the conformal calibration process. We theoretically provide the conformal coverage bound of Rob-FCP in the Byzantine setting and show that the coverage of Rob-FCP is asymptotically close to the desired coverage level. We also propose a malicious client number estimator to tackle a more challenging setting where the number of malicious clients is unknown to the defender and theoretically shows its effectiveness. We empirically demonstrate the robustness of Rob-FCP against diverse proportions of malicious clients under a variety of Byzantine attacks on five standard benchmark and real-world healthcare datasets.
Claim
Conformal prediction has shown impressive capacity in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for machine learning models with exchangeable data samples.
Relaxed Quantile Regression: Prediction Intervals for Asymmetric Noise Paper
Abstract
Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground truth target will fall with some prespecified probability. This is an essential requirement in many real-world applications where simple point predictions' inability to convey the magnitude and frequency of errors renders them insufficient for high-stakes decisions. Quantile regression is a leading approach for obtaining such intervals via the empirical estimation of quantiles in the (non-parametric) distribution of outputs. This method is simple, computationally inexpensive, interpretable, assumption-free, and effective. However, it does require that the specific quantiles being learned are chosen a priori. This results in (a) intervals that are arbitrarily symmetric around the median which is sub-optimal for realistic skewed distributions, or (b) learning an excessive number of intervals. In this work, we propose Relaxed Quantile Regression (RQR), a direct alternative to quantile regression based interval construction that removes this arbitrary constraint whilst maintaining its strengths. We demonstrate that this added flexibility results in intervals with an improvement in desirable qualities (e.g. mean width) whilst retaining the essential coverage guarantees of quantile regression.
Claim
Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting.
Data Poisoning Attacks against Conformal Prediction Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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The Pitfalls and Promise of Conformal Inference Under Adversarial Attacks Paper
Abstract
In safety-critical applications such as medical imaging and autonomous driving, where decisions have profound implications for patient health and road safety, it is imperative to maintain both high adversarial robustness to protect against potential adversarial attacks and reliable uncertainty quantification in decision-making. With extensive research focused on enhancing adversarial robustness through various forms of adversarial training (AT), a notable knowledge gap remains concerning the uncertainty inherent in adversarially trained models. To address this gap, this study investigates the uncertainty of deep learning models by examining the performance of conformal prediction (CP) in the context of standard adversarial attacks within the adversarial defense community. It is first unveiled that existing CP methods do not produce informative prediction sets under the commonly used \(l_{\infty}\)-norm bounded attack if the model is not adversarially trained, which underpins the importance of adversarial training for CP. Our paper next demonstrates that the prediction set size (PSS) of CP using adversarially trained models with AT variants is often worse than using standard AT, inspiring us to research into CP-efficient AT for improved PSS. We propose to optimize a Beta-weighting loss with an entropy minimization regularizer during AT to improve CP-efficiency, where the Beta-weighting loss is shown to be an upper bound of PSS at the population level by our theoretical analysis. Moreover, our empirical study on four image classification datasets across three popular AT baselines validates the effectiveness of the proposed Uncertainty-Reducing AT (AT-UR).
Claim
In safety-critical applications such as medical imaging and autonomous driving, where decisions have profound implications for patient health and road safety, it is imperative to maintain both high adversarial robustness to protect against potential adversarial attacks and reliable uncertainty quantification in decision-making.
Loss Shaping Constraints for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising performance averaged over the predicted window. We observe that this can lead to disparate distributions of errors across forecasting steps, especially for recent transformer architectures trained on popular forecasting benchmarks. That is, optimising performance on average can lead to undesirably large errors at specific time-steps. In this work, we present a Constrained Learning approach for long-term time series forecasting that aims to find the best model in terms of average performance that respects a user-defined upper bound on the loss at each time-step. We call our approach loss shaping constraints because it imposes constraints on the loss at each time step, and leverage recent duality results to show that despite its non-convexity, the resulting problem has a bounded duality gap. We propose a practical Primal-Dual algorithm to tackle it, and demonstrate that the proposed approach exhibits competitive average performance in time series forecasting benchmarks, while shaping the distribution of errors across the predicted window.
Claim
Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead.
Stochastic Online Conformal Prediction with Semi-Bandit Feedback Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label with high probability. However, conformal prediction typically requires a large calibration dataset of i.i.d. examples. We consider the online learning setting, where examples arrive over time, and the goal is to construct prediction sets dynamically. Departing from existing work, we assume semi-bandit feedback, where we only observe the true label if it is contained in the prediction set. For instance, consider calibrating a document retrieval model to a new domain; in this setting, a user would only be able to provide the true label if the target document is in the prediction set of retrieved documents. We propose a novel conformal prediction algorithm targeted at this setting, and prove that it obtains sublinear regret compared to the optimal conformal predictor. We evaluate our algorithm on a retrieval task, an image classification task, and an auction price-setting task, and demonstrate that it empirically achieves good performance compared to several baselines.
Claim
Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label.
Piecewise Constant and Linear Regression Trees: An Optimal Dynamic Programming Approach Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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Ab initio nonparametric variable selection for scalable Symbolic Regression with large p Paper
Abstract
Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering symbolic expressions that characterize nonlinear relationships in data, gaining increasing attention for its interpretability, compactness, and robustness. However, existing SR methods do not scale to datasets with a large number of input variables (referred to as extreme-scale SR), which is common in modern scientific applications. This ``large \(p\)'' setting, often accompanied by measurement error, leads to slow performance of SR methods and overly complex expressions that are difficult to interpret. To address this scalability challenge, we propose a method called PAN+SR, which combines a key idea of ab initio nonparametric variable selection with SR to efficiently pre-screen large input spaces and reduce search complexity while maintaining accuracy. The use of nonparametric methods eliminates model misspecification, supporting a strategy called parametric-assisted nonparametric (PAN). We also extend SRBench, an open-source benchmarking platform, by incorporating high-dimensional regression problems with various signal-to-noise ratios. Our results demonstrate that PAN+SR consistently enhances the performance of 19 contemporary SR methods, enabling several to achieve state-of-the-art performance on these challenging datasets.
Claim
Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering symbolic expressions that characterize nonlinear relationships in data, gaining increasing attention for its interpretability, compactness, and robustness.
FactTest: Factuality Testing in Large Language Models with Finite-Sample and Distribution-Free Guarantees Paper
Abstract
The propensity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations and non-factual content undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, where rigorous control over Type I errors (the conditional probability of incorrectly classifying hallucinations as truthful content) is essential. Despite its importance, formal verification of LLM factuality with such guarantees remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce FactTest, a novel framework that statistically assesses whether a LLM can confidently provide correct answers to given questions with high-probability correctness guarantees. We formulate factuality testing as hypothesis testing problem to enforce an upper bound of Type I errors at user-specified significance levels. Notably, we prove that our framework also ensures strong Type II error control under mild conditions and can be extended to maintain its effectiveness when covariate shifts exist. Our approach is distribution-free and works for any number of human-annotated samples. It is model-agnostic and applies to any black-box or white-box LM. Extensive experiments on question-answering (QA) and multiple-choice benchmarks demonstrate that FactTest effectively detects hallucinations and improves the model's ability to abstain from answering unknown questions, leading to an over 40% accuracy improvement.
Claim
The propensity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations and non-factual content undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, where rigorous control over Type I errors (the conditional probability of incorrectly classifying hallucinations as truthful content) is essential.
Learning to Remove Cuts in Integer Linear Programming Paper
Abstract
Cutting plane methods are a fundamental approach for solving integer linear programs (ILPs). In each iteration of such methods, additional linear constraints (cuts) are introduced to the constraint set with the aim of excluding the previous fractional optimal solution while not affecting the optimal integer solution. In this work, we explore a novel approach within cutting plane methods: instead of only adding new cuts, we also consider the removal of previous cuts introduced at any of the preceding iterations of the method under a learnable parametric criteria. We demonstrate that in fundamental combinatorial optimization settings such cut removal policies can lead to significant improvements over both human-based and machine learning-guided cut addition policies even when implemented with simple models.
Claim
Cutting plane methods are a fundamental approach for solving integer linear programs (ILPs).
A Unified Linear Programming Framework for Offline Reward Learning from Human Demonstrations and Feedback Paper
Abstract
Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) and Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) are pivotal methodologies in reward learning, which involve inferring and shaping the underlying reward function of sequential decision-making problems based on observed human demonstrations and feedback. Most prior work in reward learning has relied on prior knowledge or assumptions about decision or preference models, potentially leading to robustness issues. In response, this paper introduces a novel linear programming (LP) framework tailored for offline reward learning. Utilizing pre-collected trajectories without online exploration, this framework estimates a feasible reward set from the primal-dual optimality conditions of a suitably designed LP, and offers an optimality guarantee with provable sample efficiency. Our LP framework also enables aligning the reward functions with human feedback, such as pairwise trajectory comparison data, while maintaining computational tractability and sample efficiency. We demonstrate that our framework potentially achieves better performance compared to the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach through analytical examples and numerical experiments.
Claim
Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) and Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) are pivotal methodologies in reward learning, which involve inferring and shaping the underlying reward function of sequential decision-making problems based on observed human demonstrations and feedback.
WAVE: Weighted Autoregressive Varying Gate for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
We propose a Weighted Autoregressive Varying gatE (WAVE) attention mechanism equipped with both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving-average (MA) components. It can adapt to various attention mechanisms, enhancing and decoupling their ability to capture long-range and local temporal patterns in time series data. In this paper, we first demonstrate that, for the time series forecasting (TSF) task, the previously overlooked decoder-only autoregressive Transformer model can achieve results comparable to the best baselines when appropriate tokenization and training methods are applied. Moreover, inspired by the ARMA model from statistics and recent advances in linear attention, we introduce the full ARMA structure into existing autoregressive attention mechanisms. By using an indirect MA weight generation method, we incorporate the MA term while maintaining the time complexity and parameter size of the underlying efficient attention models. We further explore how indirect parameter generation can produce implicit MA weights that align with the modeling requirements for local temporal impacts. Experimental results show that WAVE attention that incorporates the ARMA structure consistently improves the performance of various AR attentions on TSF tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results.
Claim
We propose a Weighted Autoregressive Varying gatE (WAVE) attention mechanism equipped with both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving-average (MA) components.
CursorCore: Assist Programming through Aligning Anything Paper
Abstract
Large language models have been successfully applied to programming assistance tasks, such as code completion, code insertion, and instructional code editing. However, these applications remain insufficiently automated and struggle to effectively integrate various types of information during the programming process, including coding history, current code, and user instructions. In this work, we propose a new conversational framework that comprehensively integrates these information sources, collect data to train our models and evaluate their performance. Firstly, to thoroughly evaluate how well models align with different types of information and the quality of their outputs, we introduce a new benchmark, APEval (Assist Programming Eval), to comprehensively assess the performance of models in programming assistance tasks. Then, for data collection, we develop a data generation pipeline, Programming-Instruct, which synthesizes training data from diverse sources, such as GitHub and online judge platforms. This pipeline can automatically generate various types of messages throughout the programming process. Finally, using this pipeline, we generate 219K samples, fine-tune multiple models, and develop the CursorCore series. We show that CursorCore outperforms other models of comparable size. This framework unifies applications such as inline chat and automated editing, contributes to the advancement of coding assistants. Code, models and data are freely available at https://github.com/TechxGenus/CursorCore.
Claim
Large language models have been successfully applied to programming assistance tasks, such as code completion, code insertion, and instructional code editing.
New Sample Complexity Bounds for Sample Average Approximation in Heavy-Tailed Stochastic Programming Paper
Abstract
Not stated in metadata.
Claim
Not stated in abstract.
Privacy Preserving Adaptive Experiment Design Paper
Abstract
Adaptive experiment is widely adopted to estimate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) in clinical trials and many other scenarios. While the primary goal in experiment is to maximize estimation accuracy, due to the imperative of social welfare, it's also crucial to provide treatment with superior outcomes to patients, which is measured by regret in contextual bandit framework. These two objectives often lead to contrast optimal allocation mechanism. Furthermore, privacy concerns arise in clinical scenarios containing sensitive data like patients health records. Therefore, it's essential for the treatment allocation mechanism to incorporate robust privacy protection measures. In this paper, we investigate the tradeoff between loss of social welfare and statistical power in contextual bandit experiment. We propose a matched upper and lower bound for the multi-objective optimization problem, and then adopt the concept of Pareto optimality to mathematically characterize the optimality condition. Furthermore, we propose differentially private algorithms which still matches the lower bound, showing that privacy is"almost free". Additionally, we derive the asymptotic normality of the estimator, which is essential in statistical inference and hypothesis testing.
Claim
Adaptive experiment is widely adopted to estimate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) in clinical trials and many other scenarios.
Autonomous Sparse Mean-CVaR Portfolio Optimization Paper
Abstract
The \(\ell_0\)-constrained mean-CVaR model poses a significant challenge due to its NP-hard nature, typically tackled through combinatorial methods characterized by high computational demands. From a markedly different perspective, we propose an innovative autonomous sparse mean-CVaR portfolio model, capable of approximating the original \(\ell_0\)-constrained mean-CVaR model with arbitrary accuracy. The core idea is to convert the \(\ell_0\) constraint into an indicator function and subsequently handle it through a tailed approximation. We then propose a proximal alternating linearized minimization algorithm, coupled with a nested fixed-point proximity algorithm (both convergent), to iteratively solve the model. Autonomy in sparsity refers to retaining a significant portion of assets within the selected asset pool during adjustments in pool size. Consequently, our framework offers a theoretically guaranteed approximation of the \(\ell_0\)-constrained mean-CVaR model, improving computational efficiency while providing a robust asset selection scheme.
Claim
The \(\ell_0\)-constrained mean-CVaR model poses a significant challenge due to its NP-hard nature, typically tackled through combinatorial methods characterized by high computational demands.
Integer Programming for Generalized Causal Bootstrap Designs Paper
Abstract
In experimental causal inference, we distinguish between two sources of uncertainty: design uncertainty, due to the treatment assignment mechanism, and sampling uncertainty, when the sample is drawn from a super-population. This distinction matters in settings with small fixed samples and heterogeneous treatment effects, as in geographical experiments. The standard bootstrap procedure most often used by practitioners primarily estimates sampling uncertainty, and the causal bootstrap procedure, which accounts for design uncertainty, was developed for the completely randomized design and the difference-in-means estimator, whereas non-standard designs and estimators are often used in these low-power regimes. We address this gap by proposing an integer program which computes numerically the worst-case copula used as an input to the causal bootstrap method, in a wide range of settings. Specifically, we prove the asymptotic validity of our approach for unconfounded, conditionally unconfounded, and and individualistic with bounded confoundedness assignments, as well as generalizing to any linear-in-treatment and quadratic-in-treatment estimators. We demonstrate the refined confidence intervals achieved through simulations of small geographical experiments.
Claim
In experimental causal inference, we distinguish between two sources of uncertainty: design uncertainty, due to the treatment assignment mechanism, and sampling uncertainty, when the sample is drawn from a super-population.
International Conference on Learning Representations¶
2024¶
Automated Design of Agentic Systems Paper
Abstract
Researchers are investing substantial effort in developing powerful general-purpose agents, wherein Foundation Models are used as modules within agentic systems (e.g. Chain-of-Thought, Self-Reflection, Toolformer). However, the history of machine learning teaches us that hand-designed solutions are eventually replaced by learned solutions. We describe a newly forming research area, Automated Design of Agentic Systems (ADAS), which aims to automatically create powerful agentic system designs, including inventing novel building blocks and/or combining them in new ways. We further demonstrate that there is an unexplored yet promising approach within ADAS where agents can be defined in code and new agents can be automatically discovered by a meta agent programming ever better ones in code. Given that programming languages are Turing Complete, this approach theoretically enables the learning of any possible agentic system: including novel prompts, tool use, workflows, and combinations thereof. We present a simple yet effective algorithm named Meta Agent Search to demonstrate this idea, where a meta agent iteratively programs interesting new agents based on an ever-growing archive of previous discoveries. Through extensive experiments across multiple domains including coding, science, and math, we show that our algorithm can progressively invent agents with novel designs that greatly outperform state-of-the-art hand-designed agents. Importantly, we consistently observe the surprising result that agents invented by Meta Agent Search maintain superior performance even when transferred across domains and models, demonstrating their robustness and generality. Provided we develop it safely, our work illustrates the potential of an exciting new research direction toward automatically designing ever-more powerful agentic systems to benefit humanity.
Claim
Researchers are investing substantial effort in developing powerful general-purpose agents, wherein Foundation Models are used as modules within agentic systems (e.g.
TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.
Claim
Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting.
BigCodeBench: Benchmarking Code Generation with Diverse Function Calls and Complex Instructions Paper
Abstract
Task automation has been greatly empowered by the recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) via Python code, where the tasks ranging from software engineering development to general-purpose reasoning. While current benchmarks have shown that LLMs can solve tasks using programs like human developers, the majority of their evaluations are limited to short and self-contained algorithmic tasks or standalone function calls. Solving challenging and practical tasks requires the capability of utilizing diverse function calls as tools to efficiently implement functionalities like data analysis and web development. In addition, using multiple tools to solve a task needs compositional reasoning by accurately understanding complex instructions. Fulfilling both of these characteristics can pose a great challenge for LLMs.To assess how well LLMs can solve challenging and practical tasks via programs, we introduce BigCodeBench, a benchmark that challenges LLMs to invoke multiple function calls as tools from 139 libraries and 7 domains for 1,140 fine-grained tasks. To evaluate LLMs rigorously, each task encompasses 5.6 test cases with an average branch coverage of 99%. In addition, we propose a natural-language-oriented variant of BigCodeBench, BigCodeBench-Instruct, that automatically transforms the original docstrings into short instructions only with essential information. Our extensive evaluation of 60 LLMs shows that LLMs are not yet capable of following complex instructions to use function calls precisely, with scores up to 60%, significantly lower than the human performance of 97%. The results underscore the need for further advancements in this area.
Claim
Task automation has been greatly empowered by the recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) via Python code, where the tasks ranging from software engineering development to general-purpose reasoning.
Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts Paper
Abstract
Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.
Claim
Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades.
AgentHarm: A Benchmark for Measuring Harmfulness of LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
The robustness of LLMs to jailbreak attacks, where users design prompts to circumvent safety measures and misuse model capabilities, has been studied primarily for LLMs acting as simple chatbots. Meanwhile, LLM agents -- which use external tools and can execute multi-stage tasks -- may pose a greater risk if misused, but their robustness remains underexplored. To facilitate research on LLM agent misuse, we propose a new benchmark called AgentHarm. The benchmark includes a diverse set of 110 explicitly malicious agent tasks (440 with augmentations), covering 11 harm categories including fraud, cybercrime, and harassment. In addition to measuring whether models refuse harmful agentic requests, scoring well on AgentHarm requires jailbroken agents to maintain their capabilities following an attack to complete a multi-step task. We evaluate a range of leading LLMs, and find (1) leading LLMs are surprisingly compliant with malicious agent requests without jailbreaking, (2) simple universal jailbreak templates can be adapted to effectively jailbreak agents, and (3) these jailbreaks enable coherent and malicious multi-step agent behavior and retain model capabilities. To enable simple and reliable evaluation of attacks and defenses for LLM-based agents, we publicly release AgentHarm at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ai-safety-institute/AgentHarm.
Claim
The robustness of LLMs to jailbreak attacks, where users design prompts to circumvent safety measures and misuse model capabilities, has been studied primarily for LLMs acting as simple chatbots.
AFlow: Automating Agentic Workflow Generation Paper
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in solving complex tasks across diverse domains, typically by employing agentic workflows that follow detailed instructions and operational sequences. However, constructing these workflows requires significant human effort, limiting scalability and generalizability. Recent research has sought to automate the generation and optimization of these workflows, but existing methods still rely on initial manual setup and fall short of achieving fully automated and effective workflow generation. To address this challenge, we reformulate workflow optimization as a search problem over code-represented workflows, where LLM-invoking nodes are connected by edges. We introduce AFlow, an automated framework that efficiently explores this space using Monte Carlo Tree Search, iteratively refining workflows through code modification, tree-structured experience, and execution feedback. Empirical evaluations across six benchmark datasets demonstrate AFlow's efficacy, yielding a 5.7% average improvement over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, AFlow enables smaller models to outperform GPT-4o on specific tasks at 4.55% of its inference cost in dollars. The code is available at https://github.com/FoundationAgents/AFlow.
Claim
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in solving complex tasks across diverse domains, typically by employing agentic workflows that follow detailed instructions and operational sequences.
Pathformer: Multi-scale Transformers with Adaptive Pathways for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.
Claim
Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales.
Agent S: An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human Paper
Abstract
We present Agent S, an open agentic framework that enables autonomous interaction with computers through a Graphical User Interface (GUI), aimed at transforming human-computer interaction by automating complex, multi-step tasks. Agent S aims to address three key challenges in automating computer tasks: acquiring domain-specific knowledge, planning over long task horizons, and handling dynamic, non-uniform interfaces. To this end, Agent S introduces experience-augmented hierarchical planning, which learns from external knowledge search and internal experience retrieval at multiple levels, facilitating efficient task planning and subtask execution. In addition, it employs an Agent-Computer Interface (ACI) to better elicit the reasoning and control capabilities of GUI agents based on Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). Evaluation on the OSWorld benchmark shows that Agent S outperforms the baseline by 9.37% on success rate (an 83.6% relative improvement) and achieves a new state-of-the-art. Comprehensive analysis highlights the effectiveness of individual components and provides insights for future improvements. Furthermore, Agent S demonstrates broad generalizability to different operating systems on a newly-released WindowsAgentArena benchmark. Code available at https://github.com/simular-ai/Agent-S.
Claim
We present Agent S, an open agentic framework that enables autonomous interaction with computers through a Graphical User Interface (GUI), aimed at transforming human-computer interaction by automating complex, multi-step tasks.
TimeMixer++: A General Time Series Pattern Machine for Universal Predictive Analysis Paper
Abstract
Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. In this work, we present the time series pattern machine (TSPM), a model designed to excel in a broad range of time series tasks through powerful representation and pattern extraction capabilities. Traditional time series models often struggle to capture universal patterns, limiting their effectiveness across diverse tasks. To address this, we define multiple scales in the time domain and various resolutions in the frequency domain, employing various mixing strategies to extract intricate, task-adaptive time series patterns. Specifically, we introduce a general-purpose TSPM that processes multi-scale time series using (1) multi-resolution time imaging (MRTI), (2) time image decomposition (TID), (3) multi-scale mixing (MCM), and (4) multi-resolution mixing (MRM) to extract comprehensive temporal patterns. MRTI transforms multi-scale time series into multi-resolution time images, capturing patterns across both temporal and frequency domains. TID leverages dual-axis attention to extract seasonal and trend patterns, while MCM hierarchically aggregates these patterns across scales. MRM adaptively integrates all representations across resolutions. This method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 8 time series analytical tasks, consistently surpassing both general-purpose and task-specific models. Our work marks a promising step toward the next generation of TSPMs, paving the way for further advancements in time series analysis.
Claim
Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation.
Programming Refusal with Conditional Activation Steering Paper
Abstract
LLMs have shown remarkable capabilities, but precisely controlling their response behavior remains challenging. Existing activation steering methods alter LLM behavior indiscriminately, limiting their practical applicability in settings where selective responses are essential, such as content moderation or domain-specific assistants. In this paper, we propose Conditional Activation Steering (CAST), which analyzes LLM activation patterns during inference to selectively apply or withhold activation steering based on the input context. Our method is based on the observation that different categories of prompts activate distinct patterns in the model's hidden states. Using CAST, one can systematically control LLM behavior with rules like"if input is about hate speech or adult content, then refuse"or"if input is not about legal advice, then refuse."This allows for selective modification of responses to specific content while maintaining normal responses to other content, all without requiring weight optimization. We release an open-source implementation of our framework at github.com/IBM/activation-steering .
Claim
LLMs have shown remarkable capabilities, but precisely controlling their response behavior remains challenging.
Dissecting Adversarial Robustness of Multimodal LM Agents Paper
Abstract
As language models (LMs) are used to build autonomous agents in real environments, ensuring their adversarial robustness becomes a critical challenge. Unlike chatbots, agents are compound systems with multiple components taking actions, which existing LMs safety evaluations do not adequately address. To bridge this gap, we manually create 200 targeted adversarial tasks and evaluation scripts in a realistic threat model on top of VisualWebArena, a real environment for web agents. To systematically examine the robustness of agents, we propose the Agent Robustness Evaluation (ARE) framework. ARE views the agent as a graph showing the flow of intermediate outputs between components and decomposes robustness as the flow of adversarial information on the graph. We find that we can successfully break latest agents that use black-box frontier LMs, including those that perform reflection and tree search. With imperceptible perturbations to a single image (less than 5% of total web page pixels), an attacker can hijack these agents to execute targeted adversarial goals with success rates up to 67%. We also use ARE to rigorously evaluate how the robustness changes as new components are added. We find that inference-time compute that typically improves benign performance can open up new vulnerabilities and harm robustness. An attacker can compromise the evaluator used by the reflexion agent and the value function of the tree search agent, which increases the attack success relatively by 15% and 20%. Our data and code for attacks, defenses, and evaluation are at https://github.com/ChenWu98/agent-attack
Claim
As language models (LMs) are used to build autonomous agents in real environments, ensuring their adversarial robustness becomes a critical challenge.
BALROG: Benchmarking Agentic LLM and VLM Reasoning On Games Paper
Abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs) possess extensive knowledge and exhibit promising reasoning abilities, however, they still struggle to perform well in complex, dynamic environments. Real-world tasks require handling intricate interactions, advanced spatial reasoning, long-term planning, and continuous exploration of new strategies-areas in which we lack effective methodologies for comprehensively evaluating these capabilities. To address this gap, we introduce BALROG, a novel benchmark designed to assess the agentic capabilities of LLMs and VLMs through a diverse set of challenging games. Our benchmark incorporates a range of existing reinforcement learning environments with varying levels of difficulty, including tasks that are solvable by non-expert humans in seconds to extremely challenging ones that may take years to master (e.g., the NetHack Learning Environment). We devise fine-grained metrics to measure performance and conduct an extensive evaluation of several popular open-source and closed-source LLMs and VLMs. Our findings indicate that while current models achieve partial success in the easier games, they struggle significantly with more challenging tasks. Notably, we observe severe deficiencies in vision-based decision-making, as several models perform worse when visual representations of the environments are provided. We release BALROG as an open and user-friendly benchmark to facilitate future research and development in the agentic community. Code and Leaderboard at balrogai.com.
Claim
Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs) possess extensive knowledge and exhibit promising reasoning abilities, however, they still struggle to perform well in complex, dynamic environments.
ChartMimic: Evaluating LMM's Cross-Modal Reasoning Capability via Chart-to-Code Generation Paper
Abstract
We introduce a new benchmark, ChartMimic, aimed at assessing the visually-grounded code generation capabilities of large multimodal models (LMMs). ChartMimic utilizes information-intensive visual charts and textual instructions as inputs, requiring LMMs to generate the corresponding code for chart rendering. ChartMimic includes 4,800 human-curated (figure, instruction, code) triplets, which represent the authentic chart use cases found in scientific papers across various domains (e.g., Physics, Computer Science, Economics, etc). These charts span 18 regular types and 4 advanced types, diversifying into 201 subcategories. Furthermore, we propose multi-level evaluation metrics to provide an automatic and thorough assessment of the output code and the rendered charts. Unlike existing code generation benchmarks, ChartMimic places emphasis on evaluating LMMs' capacity to harmonize a blend of cognitive capabilities, encompassing visual understanding, code generation, and cross-modal reasoning. The evaluation of \(3\) proprietary models and 14 open-weight models highlights the substantial challenges posed by ChartMimic. Even the advanced GPT-4o, InternVL2-Llama3-76B only achieved an average score across Direct Mimic and Customized Mimic tasks of 82.2 and 61.6, respectively, indicating significant room for improvement. We anticipate that ChartMimic will inspire the development of LMMs, advancing the pursuit of artificial general intelligence.
Claim
We introduce a new benchmark, ChartMimic, aimed at assessing the visually-grounded code generation capabilities of large multimodal models (LMMs).
LLM-SR: Scientific Equation Discovery via Programming with Large Language Models Paper
Abstract
Mathematical equations have been unreasonably effective in describing complex natural phenomena across various scientific disciplines. However, discovering such insightful equations from data presents significant challenges due to the necessity of navigating extremely large combinatorial hypothesis spaces. Current methods of equation discovery, commonly known as symbolic regression techniques, largely focus on extracting equations from data alone, often neglecting the domain-specific prior knowledge that scientists typically depend on. They also employ limited representations such as expression trees, constraining the search space and expressiveness of equations. To bridge this gap, we introduce LLM-SR, a novel approach that leverages the extensive scientific knowledge and robust code generation capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover scientific equations from data. Specifically, LLM-SR treats equations as programs with mathematical operators and combines LLMs' scientific priors with evolutionary search over equation programs. The LLM iteratively proposes new equation skeleton hypotheses, drawing from its domain knowledge, which are then optimized against data to estimate parameters. We evaluate LLM-SR on four benchmark problems across diverse scientific domains (e.g., physics, biology), which we carefully designed to simulate the discovery process and prevent LLM recitation. Our results demonstrate that LLM-SR discovers physically accurate equations that significantly outperform state-of-the-art symbolic regression baselines, particularly in out-of-domain test settings. We also show that LLM-SR's incorporation of scientific priors enables more efficient equation space exploration than the baselines. Code and data are available: https://github.com/deep-symbolic-mathematics/LLM-SR
Claim
Mathematical equations have been unreasonably effective in describing complex natural phenomena across various scientific disciplines.
AgentSquare: Automatic LLM Agent Search in Modular Design Space Paper
Abstract
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to a rapid growth of agentic systems capable of handling a wide range of complex tasks. However, current research largely relies on manual, task-specific design, limiting their adaptability to novel tasks. In this paper, we introduce a new research problem: Modularized LLM Agent Search (MoLAS). We propose a modular design space that abstracts existing LLM agent designs into four fundamental modules with uniform IO interface: Planning, Reasoning, Tool Use, and Memory. Building on this design space, we present a novel LLM agent search framework called AgentSquare, which introduces two core mechanisms, i.e., module evolution and recombination, to efficiently search for optimized LLM agents. To further accelerate the process, we design a performance predictor that uses in-context surrogate models to skip unpromising agent designs. Extensive experiments across six benchmarks, covering the diverse scenarios of web, embodied, tool use and game applications, show that AgentSquare substantially outperforms hand-crafted agents, achieving an average performance gain of 17.2% against best-known human designs. Moreover, AgentSquare can generate interpretable design insights, enabling a deeper understanding of agentic architecture and its impact on task performance. We believe that the modular design space and AgentSquare search framework offer a platform for fully exploiting the potential of prior successful designs and consolidating the collective efforts of research community. Code repo is available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/AgentSquare.
Claim
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to a rapid growth of agentic systems capable of handling a wide range of complex tasks.
RepoGraph: Enhancing AI Software Engineering with Repository-level Code Graph Paper
Abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in code generation yet struggle with modern AI software engineering tasks. Unlike traditional function-level or file-level coding tasks, AI software engineering requires not only basic coding proficiency but also advanced skills in managing and interacting with code repositories. However, existing methods often overlook the need for repository-level code understanding, which is crucial for accurately grasping the broader context and developing effective solutions. On this basis, we present RepoGraph, a plug-in module that manages a repository-level structure for modern AI software engineering solutions. RepoGraph offers the desired guidance and serves as a repository-wide navigation for AI software engineers. We evaluate RepoGraph on the SWE-bench by plugging it into four different methods of two lines of approaches, where RepoGraph substantially boosts the performance of all systems, leading to a new state-of-the-art among open-source frameworks. Our analyses also demonstrate the extensibility and flexibility of RepoGraph by testing on another repo-level coding benchmark, CrossCodeEval. Our code is available at https://github.com/ozyyshr/RepoGraph.
Claim
Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in code generation yet struggle with modern AI software engineering tasks.
Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
We present Timer-XL, a causal Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict multidimensional time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for 1D token sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The paradigm formulates various forecasting tasks as a long-context prediction problem. We opt for decoder-only Transformers that capture causal dependencies from varying-length contexts for unified forecasting, making predictions on non-stationary univariate time series, multivariate series with complicated dynamics and correlations, as well as covariate-informed contexts that include exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches), which is further enhanced by deft position embedding for temporal causality and variable equivalence. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across task-specific forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. Based on large-scale pre-training, Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, making it a promising architecture for pre-trained time series models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Timer-XL.
Claim
We present Timer-XL, a causal Transformer for unified time series forecasting.
Proactive Agent: Shifting LLM Agents from Reactive Responses to Active Assistance Paper
Abstract
Agents powered by large language models have shown remarkable abilities in solving complex tasks. However, most agent systems remain reactive, limiting their effectiveness in scenarios requiring foresight and autonomous decision-making. In this paper, we tackle the challenge of developing proactive agents capable of anticipating and initiating tasks without explicit human instructions. We propose a novel data-driven approach for this problem. Firstly, we collect real-world human activities to generate proactive task predictions. These predictions are then labeled by human annotators as either accepted or rejected. The labeled data is used to train a reward model that simulates human judgment and serves as an automatic evaluator of the proactiveness of LLM agents. Building on this, we develop a comprehensive data generation pipeline to create a diverse dataset, ProactiveBench, containing 6,790 events. Finally, we demonstrate that fine-tuning models with the proposed ProactiveBench can significantly elicit the proactiveness of LLM agents. Experimental results show that our fine-tuned model achieves an F1-Score of 66.47% in proactively offering assistance, outperforming all open-source and close-source models. These results highlight the potential of our method in creating more proactive and effective agent systems, paving the way for future advancements in human-agent collaboration.
Claim
Agents powered by large language models have shown remarkable abilities in solving complex tasks.
Real2Code: Reconstruct Articulated Objects via Code Generation Paper
Abstract
We present Real2Code, a novel approach to reconstructing articulated objects via code generation. Given visual observations of an object, we first reconstruct its part geometry using an image segmentation model and a shape completion model. We then represent the object parts with oriented bounding boxes, which are input to a fine-tuned large language model (LLM) to predict joint articulation as code. By leveraging pre-trained vision and language models, our approach scales elegantly with the number of articulated parts, and generalizes from synthetic training data to real world objects in unstructured environments. Experimental results demonstrate that Real2Code significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art in reconstruction accuracy, and is the first approach to extrapolate beyond objects' structural complexity in the training set, and reconstructs objects with up to 10 articulated parts. When incorporated with a stereo reconstruction model, Real2Code also generalizes to real world objects from a handful of multi-view RGB images, without the need for depth or camera information.
Claim
We present Real2Code, a novel approach to reconstructing articulated objects via code generation.
Multi-Resolution Diffusion Models for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Not stated in metadata.
Claim
Not stated in abstract.
Rethinking Channel Dependence for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Learning from Leading Indicators Paper
Abstract
Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.
Claim
Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting.
Transformer-Modulated Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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An Intelligent Agentic System for Complex Image Restoration Problems Paper
Abstract
Real-world image restoration (IR) is inherently complex and often requires combining multiple specialized models to address diverse degradations. Inspired by human problem-solving, we propose AgenticIR, an agentic system that mimics the human approach to image processing by following five key stages: Perception, Scheduling, Execution, Reflection, and Rescheduling. AgenticIR leverages large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) that interact via text generation to dynamically operate a toolbox of IR models. We fine-tune VLMs for image quality analysis and employ LLMs for reasoning, guiding the system step by step. To compensate for LLMs' lack of specific IR knowledge and experience, we introduce a self-exploration method, allowing the LLM to observe and summarize restoration results into referenceable documents. Experiments demonstrate AgenticIR's potential in handling complex IR tasks, representing a promising path toward achieving general intelligence in visual processing.
Claim
Real-world image restoration (IR) is inherently complex and often requires combining multiple specialized models to address diverse degradations.
Copula Conformal prediction for multi-step time series prediction Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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What Makes Large Language Models Reason in (Multi-Turn) Code Generation? Paper
Abstract
Prompting techniques such as chain-of-thought have established themselves as a popular vehicle for improving the outputs of large language models (LLMs). For code generation, however, their exact mechanics and efficacy are under-explored. We thus investigate the effects of a wide range of prompting strategies with a focus on automatic re-prompting over multiple turns and computational requirements. After systematically decomposing reasoning, instruction, and execution feedback prompts, we conduct an extensive grid search on the competitive programming benchmarks CodeContests and TACO for multiple LLM families and sizes (Llama 3.0 and 3.1, 8B, 70B, 405B, and GPT-4o). Our study reveals strategies that consistently improve performance across all models with small and large sampling budgets. We then show how finetuning with such an optimal configuration allows models to internalize the induced reasoning process and obtain improvements in performance and scalability for multi-turn code generation.
Claim
Prompting techniques such as chain-of-thought have established themselves as a popular vehicle for improving the outputs of large language models (LLMs).
Biased Temporal Convolution Graph Network for Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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Exploring Prosocial Irrationality for LLM Agents: A Social Cognition View Paper
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to face hallucination issues due to the data they trained on often containing human bias; whether this is reflected in the decision-making process of LLM Agents remains under-explored. As LLM Agents are increasingly employed in intricate social environments, a pressing and natural question emerges: Can we utilize LLM Agents' systematic hallucinations to mirror human cognitive biases, thus exhibiting irrational social intelligence? In this paper, we probe the irrational behavior among contemporary LLM Agents by melding practical social science experiments with theoretical insights. Specifically, We propose CogMir, an open-ended Multi-LLM Agents framework that utilizes hallucination properties to assess and enhance LLM Agents' social intelligence through cognitive biases. Experimental results on CogMir subsets show that LLM Agents and humans exhibit high consistency in irrational and prosocial decision-making under uncertain conditions, underscoring the prosociality of LLM Agents as social entities and highlighting the significance of hallucination properties. Additionally, the CogMir framework demonstrates its potential as a valuable platform for encouraging more research into the social intelligence of LLM Agents.
Claim
Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to face hallucination issues due to the data they trained on often containing human bias; whether this is reflected in the decision-making process of LLM Agents remains under-explored.
Benchmarking Agentic Workflow Generation Paper
Abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs), with their exceptional ability to handle a wide range of tasks, have driven significant advancements in tackling reasoning and planning tasks, wherein decomposing complex problems into executable workflows is a crucial step in this process. Existing workflow evaluation frameworks either focus solely on holistic performance or suffer from limitations such as restricted scenario coverage, simplistic workflow structures, and lax evaluation standards. To this end, we introduce WorfBench, a unified workflow generation benchmark with multi-faceted scenarios and intricate graph workflow structures. Additionally, we present WorfEval, a systemic evaluation protocol utilizing subsequence and subgraph matching algorithms to accurately quantify the LLM agent's workflow generation capabilities. Through comprehensive evaluations across different types of LLMs, we discover distinct gaps between the sequence planning capabilities and graph planning capabilities of LLM agents, with even GPT-4 exhibiting a gap of around 15%. We also train two open-source models and evaluate their generalization abilities on held-out tasks. Furthermore, we observe that the generated workflows can enhance downstream tasks, enabling them to achieve superior performance with less time during inference. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/zjunlp/WorfBench.
Claim
Large Language Models (LLMs), with their exceptional ability to handle a wide range of tasks, have driven significant advancements in tackling reasoning and planning tasks, wherein decomposing complex problems into executable workflows is a crucial step in this process.
Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Models Paper
Abstract
Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.
Claim
Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs).
Moral Alignment for LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
Decision-making agents based on pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being deployed across various domains of human activity. While their applications are currently rather specialized, several research efforts are underway to develop more generalist agents. As LLM-based systems become more agentic, their influence on human activity will grow and their transparency will decrease. Consequently, developing effective methods for aligning them to human values is vital. The prevailing practice in alignment often relies on human preference data (e.g., in RLHF or DPO), in which values are implicit, opaque and are essentially deduced from relative preferences over different model outputs. In this work, instead of relying on human feedback, we introduce the design of reward functions that explicitly and transparently encode core human values for Reinforcement Learning-based fine-tuning of foundation agent models. Specifically, we use intrinsic rewards for the moral alignment of LLM agents. We evaluate our approach using the traditional philosophical frameworks of Deontological Ethics and Utilitarianism, quantifying moral rewards for agents in terms of actions and consequences on the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma (IPD) environment. We also show how moral fine-tuning can be deployed to enable an agent to unlearn a previously developed selfish strategy. Finally, we find that certain moral strategies learned on the IPD game generalize to several other matrix game environments. In summary, we demonstrate that fine-tuning with intrinsic rewards is a promising general solution for aligning LLM agents to human values, and it might represent a more transparent and cost-effective alternative to currently predominant alignment techniques.
Claim
Decision-making agents based on pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being deployed across various domains of human activity.
Flow Matching with Gaussian Process Priors for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based models on a simple, fixed prior complicates the generative process since the data and prior distributions differ significantly. We introduce TSFlow, a conditional flow matching (CFM) model for time series combining Gaussian processes, optimal transport paths, and data-dependent prior distributions. By incorporating (conditional) Gaussian processes, TSFlow aligns the prior distribution more closely with the temporal structure of the data, enhancing both unconditional and conditional generation. Furthermore, we propose conditional prior sampling to enable probabilistic forecasting with an unconditionally trained model. In our experimental evaluation on eight real-world datasets, we demonstrate the generative capabilities of TSFlow, producing high-quality unconditional samples. Finally, we show that both conditionally and unconditionally trained models achieve competitive results across multiple forecasting benchmarks.
Claim
Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis.
Towards Foundation Models for Mixed Integer Linear Programming Paper
Abstract
Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is essential for modeling complex decision-making problems but faces challenges in computational tractability and requires expert formulation. Current deep learning approaches for MILP focus on specific problem classes and do not generalize to unseen classes. To address this shortcoming, we take a foundation model training approach, where we train a single deep learning model on a diverse set of MILP problems to generalize across problem classes. As existing datasets for MILP lack diversity and volume, we introduce MILP-Evolve, a novel LLM-based evolutionary framework that is capable of generating a large set of diverse MILP classes with an unlimited amount of instances. We study our methodology on three key learning tasks that capture diverse aspects of MILP: (1) integrality gap prediction, (2) learning to branch, and (3) a new task of aligning MILP instances with natural language descriptions. Our empirical results show that models trained on the data generated by MILP-Evolve achieve significant improvements on unseen problems, including MIPLIB benchmarks. Our work highlights the potential of moving towards a foundation model approach for MILP that can generalize to a broad range of MILP applications. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/OptiGuide.
Claim
Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is essential for modeling complex decision-making problems but faces challenges in computational tractability and requires expert formulation.
MarS: a Financial Market Simulation Engine Powered by Generative Foundation Model Paper
Abstract
Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's"paradigm shift"potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.
Claim
Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects.
Provably Robust Conformal Prediction with Improved Efficiency Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to \(4.36\times\), \(5.46\times\), and \(16.9\times\) respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.
Claim
Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.
EMOS: Embodiment-aware Heterogeneous Multi-robot Operating System with LLM Agents Paper
Abstract
Heterogeneous multi-robot systems (HMRS) have emerged as a powerful approach for tackling complex tasks that single robots cannot manage alone. Current large-language-model-based multi-agent systems (LLM-based MAS) have shown success in areas like software development and operating systems, but applying these systems to robot control presents unique challenges. In particular, the capabilities of each agent in a multi-robot system are inherently tied to the physical composition of the robots, rather than predefined roles. To address this issue, we introduce a novel multi-agent framework designed to enable effective collaboration among heterogeneous robots with varying embodiments and capabilities, along with a new benchmark named Habitat-MAS. One of our key designs is \(\textit{Robot Resume}\): Instead of adopting human-designed role play, we propose a self-prompted approach, where agents comprehend robot URDF files and call robot kinematics tools to generate descriptions of their physics capabilities to guide their behavior in task planning and action execution. The Habitat-MAS benchmark is designed to assess how a multi-agent framework handles tasks that require embodiment-aware reasoning, which includes 1) manipulation, 2) perception, 3) navigation, and 4) comprehensive multi-floor object rearrangement. The experimental results indicate that the robot's resume and the hierarchical design of our multi-agent system are essential for the effective operation of the heterogeneous multi-robot system within this intricate problem context.
Claim
Heterogeneous multi-robot systems (HMRS) have emerged as a powerful approach for tackling complex tasks that single robots cannot manage alone.
Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.
Claim
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed.
Probabilistic Conformal Prediction with Approximate Conditional Validity Paper
Abstract
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution \(P_{Y \mid X}\). Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and probabilistic conformal prediction, usually provide only a marginal coverage guarantee. In contrast, our approach extends these frameworks to achieve approximately conditional coverage, which is crucial for many practical applications. Our prediction sets adapt to the behavior of the predictive distribution, making them effective even under high heteroscedasticity. While exact conditional guarantees are infeasible without assumptions on the underlying data distribution, we derive non-asymptotic bounds that depend on the total variation distance of the conditional distribution and its estimate. Using extensive simulations, we show that our method consistently outperforms existing approaches in terms of conditional coverage, leading to more reliable statistical inference in a variety of applications.
Claim
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution \(P_{Y \mid X}\).
RobustTSF: Towards Theory and Design of Robust Time Series Forecasting with Anomalies Paper
Abstract
Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF.
Claim
Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications.
Reinforcement Symbolic Regression Machine Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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Conformal Inductive Graph Neural Networks Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage guarantee. This makes it directly applicable to transductive node-classification. However, conventional CP cannot be applied in inductive settings due to the implicit shift in the (calibration) scores caused by message passing with the new nodes. We fix this issue for both cases of node and edge-exchangeable graphs, recovering the standard coverage guarantee without sacrificing statistical efficiency. We further prove that the guarantee holds independently of the prediction time, e.g. upon arrival of a new node/edge or at any subsequent moment.
Claim
Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label.
Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Prediction Paper
Abstract
In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.
Claim
In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI).
Conformal Prediction Sets Can Cause Disparate Impact Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable; many applications require a single output to act on, not several. To overcome this limitation, prediction sets can be provided to a human who then makes an informed decision. In any such system it is crucial to ensure the fairness of outcomes across protected groups, and researchers have proposed that Equalized Coverage be used as the standard for fairness. By conducting experiments with human participants, we demonstrate that providing prediction sets can lead to disparate impact in decisions. Disquietingly, we find that providing sets that satisfy Equalized Coverage actually increases disparate impact compared to marginal coverage. Instead of equalizing coverage, we propose to equalize set sizes across groups which empirically leads to lower disparate impact.
Claim
Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty.
Better than Your Teacher: LLM Agents that learn from Privileged AI Feedback Paper
Abstract
While large language models (LLMs) show impressive decision-making abilities, current methods lack a mechanism for automatic self-improvement from errors during task execution. We propose LEAP, an iterative fine-tuning framework that continually improves LLM agents using feedback from AI expert teachers. Our key insight is to equip the expert teachers with a privileged state -- information that is available during training but hidden at test time. This allows even weak experts to provide precise guidance, significantly improving the student agent's performance without access to privileged information at test time. We evaluate LEAP on diverse decision-making benchmarks, including text-based games (ALFWorld), web navigation (WebShop), and interactive coding (Intercode Bash). Our experiments show that LEAP (1) outperforms behavior cloning and ReAct baselines (2) enables weak student models (e.g., Llama3-8B) to exceed the performance of strong teacher models (GPT4-o), and (3) allows weak models to self-improve using privileged versions of themselves. We also provide a theoretical analysis showing that LEAP's success hinges on balancing privileged information with the student's realizability, which we empirically validate. Our code is available at https://leap-llm.github.io
Claim
While large language models (LLMs) show impressive decision-making abilities, current methods lack a mechanism for automatic self-improvement from errors during task execution.
Symbolic regression via MDLformer-guided search: from minimizing prediction error to minimizing description length Paper
Abstract
Symbolic regression, a task discovering the formula best fitting the given data, is typically based on the heuristical search. These methods usually update candidate formulas to obtain new ones with lower prediction errors iteratively. However, since formulas with similar function shapes may have completely different symbolic forms, the prediction error does not decrease monotonously as the search approaches the target formula, causing the low recovery rate of existing methods. To solve this problem, we propose a novel search objective based on the minimum description length, which reflects the distance from the target and decreases monotonically as the search approaches the correct form of the target formula. To estimate the minimum description length of any input data, we design a neural network, MDLformer, which enables robust and scalable estimation through large-scale training. With the MDLformer's output as the search objective, we implement a symbolic regression method, SR4MDL, that can effectively recover the correct mathematical form of the formula. Extensive experiments illustrate its excellent performance in recovering formulas from data. Our method successfully recovers around 50 formulas across two benchmark datasets comprising 133 problems, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 43.92%. Experiments on 122 unseen black-box problems further demonstrate its generalization performance. We release our code at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/SR4MDL .
Claim
Symbolic regression, a task discovering the formula best fitting the given data, is typically based on the heuristical search.
COLEP: Certifiably Robust Learning-Reasoning Conformal Prediction via Probabilistic Circuits Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.
Claim
Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable.
Fourier Head: Helping Large Language Models Learn Complex Probability Distributions Paper
Abstract
As the quality of large language models has improved, there has been increased interest in using them to model non-linguistic tokens. For example, the Decision Transformer recasts agentic decision making as a sequence modeling problem, using a decoder-only LLM to model the distribution over the discrete action space for an Atari agent. However, when adapting LLMs to non-linguistic domains, it remains unclear if softmax over discrete bins captures the continuous structure of the tokens and the potentially complex distributions needed for high quality token generation. We introduce a neural network layer, constructed using Fourier series, which we can easily substitute for any linear layer if we want the outputs to have a more continuous structure. We perform extensive analysis on synthetic datasets, as well as on large-scale decision making and time series forecasting tasks. We also provide theoretical evidence that this layer can better learn signal from data while ignoring high-frequency noise. All of our results support the effectiveness of our proposed Fourier head in scenarios where the underlying data distribution has a natural continuous structure. For example, the Fourier head improves a Decision Transformer agent's returns across four benchmark Atari games by as much as 377%, and increases a state-of-the-art times series foundation model's forecasting performance by 3.5% across 20 benchmarks unseen during training.
Claim
As the quality of large language models has improved, there has been increased interest in using them to model non-linguistic tokens.
L2P-MIP: Learning to Presolve for Mixed Integer Programming Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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Diffusion On Syntax Trees For Program Synthesis Paper
Abstract
Large language models generate code one token at a time. Their autoregressive generation process lacks the feedback of observing the program's output. Training LLMs to suggest edits directly can be challenging due to the scarcity of rich edit data. To address these problems, we propose neural diffusion models that operate on syntax trees of any context-free grammar. Similar to image diffusion models, our method also inverts ``noise'' applied to syntax trees. Rather than generating code sequentially, we iteratively edit it while preserving syntactic validity, which makes it easy to combine this neural model with search. We apply our approach to inverse graphics tasks, where our model learns to convert images into programs that produce those images. Combined with search, our model is able to write graphics programs, see the execution result, and debug them to meet the required specifications. We additionally show how our system can write graphics programs for hand-drawn sketches.
Claim
Large language models generate code one token at a time.
Utility-Directed Conformal Prediction: A Decision-Aware Framework for Actionable Uncertainty Quantification Paper
Abstract
Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision problems. However, current methods for uncertainty quantification do not incorporate any information about downstream decisions. We develop a methodology based on conformal prediction to identify prediction sets that account for a downstream cost function, making them more appropriate to inform high-stakes decision-making. Our approach harnesses the strengths of conformal methods -- modularity, model-agnosticism, and statistical coverage guarantees -- while incorporating downstream decisions and user-specified utility functions. We prove that our methods retain standard coverage guarantees. Empirical evaluation across a range of datasets and utility metrics demonstrates that our methods achieve significantly lower costs than standard conformal methods. We present a real-world use case in healthcare diagnosis, where our method effectively incorporates the hierarchical structure of dermatological diseases. The method successfully generates sets with coherent diagnostic meaning, potentially aiding triage for dermatology diagnosis and illustrating how our method can ground high-stakes decision-making employing domain knowledge.
Claim
Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems.
Valid Conformal Prediction for Dynamic GNNs Paper
Abstract
Dynamic graphs provide a flexible data abstraction for modelling many sorts of real-world systems, such as transport, trade, and social networks. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are powerful tools allowing for different kinds of prediction and inference on these systems, but getting a handle on uncertainty, especially in dynamic settings, is a challenging problem. In this work we propose to use a dynamic graph representation known in the tensor literature as the unfolding, to achieve valid prediction sets via conformal prediction. This representation, a simple graph, can be input to any standard GNN and does not require any modification to existing GNN architectures or conformal prediction routines. One of our key contributions is a careful mathematical consideration of the different inference scenarios which can arise in a dynamic graph modelling context. For a range of practically relevant cases, we obtain valid prediction sets with almost no assumptions, even dispensing with exchangeability. In a more challenging scenario, which we call the semi-inductive regime, we achieve valid prediction under stronger assumptions, akin to stationarity. We provide real data examples demonstrating validity, showing improved accuracy over baselines, and sign-posting different failure modes which can occur when those assumptions are violated.
Claim
Dynamic graphs provide a flexible data abstraction for modelling many sorts of real-world systems, such as transport, trade, and social networks.
Towards Transparent Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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VQ-TR: Vector Quantized Attention for Time Series Forecasting Paper
Abstract
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Claim
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API Pack: A Massive Multi-Programming Language Dataset for API Call Generation Paper
Abstract
We introduce API Pack, a massive multi-programming language dataset containing over one million instruction-API calls for improving the API call generation capabilities of large language models. Our evaluation highlights three key findings: First, fine-tuning on API Pack enables open-source models to outperform GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 in generating code for entirely new API calls. We show this by fine-tuning CodeLlama-13B on 20,000 Python instances from API Pack. Second, fine-tuning on a large dataset in one language, combined with smaller datasets from others, improves API generation accuracy across multiple languages. Third, we confirm the benefits of larger datasets for API generalization, as increasing fine-tuning data to one million instances enhances generalization to new APIs. To support further research, we open-source the API Pack dataset, trained model, and code at https://github.com/zguo0525/API-Pack.
Claim
We introduce API Pack, a massive multi-programming language dataset containing over one million instruction-API calls for improving the API call generation capabilities of large language models.
OCCAM: Towards Cost-Efficient and Accuracy-Aware Image Classification Inference Paper
Abstract
Classification tasks play a fundamental role in various applications, spanning domains such as healthcare, natural language processing and computer vision. With the growing popularity and capacity of machine learning models, people can easily access trained classifiers as a service online or offline. However, model use comes with a cost and classifiers of higher capacity (such as large foundation models) usually incur higher inference costs. To harness the respective strengths of different classifiers, we propose a principled approach, OCCAM, to compute the best classifier assignment strategy over classification queries (termed as the optimal model portfolio) so that the aggregated accuracy is maximized, under user-specified cost budgets. Our approach uses an unbiased and low-variance accuracy estimator and effectively computes the optimal solution by solving an integer linear programming problem. On a variety of real-world datasets, OCCAM achieves 40% cost reduction with little to no accuracy drop.
Claim
Classification tasks play a fundamental role in various applications, spanning domains such as healthcare, natural language processing and computer vision.
Provably Reliable Conformal Prediction Sets in the Presence of Data Poisoning Paper
Abstract
Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not reliable under poisoning attacks where adversaries manipulate both training and calibration data, which can significantly alter prediction sets in practice. As a solution, we propose reliable prediction sets (RPS): the first efficient method for constructing conformal prediction sets with provable reliability guarantees under poisoning. To ensure reliability under training poisoning, we introduce smoothed score functions that reliably aggregate predictions of classifiers trained on distinct partitions of the training data. To ensure reliability under calibration poisoning, we construct multiple prediction sets, each calibrated on distinct subsets of the calibration data. We then aggregate them into a majority prediction set, which includes a class only if it appears in a majority of the individual sets. Both proposed aggregations mitigate the influence of datapoints in the training and calibration data on the final prediction set. We experimentally validate our approach on image classification tasks, achieving strong reliability while maintaining utility and preserving coverage on clean data. Overall, our approach represents an important step towards more trustworthy uncertainty quantification in the presence of data poisoning.
Claim
Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability.
L2MAC: Large Language Model Automatic Computer for Extensive Code Generation Paper
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